Ethereum Value Reconstruction: The Ecological Fault Behind the Rebound

Ethereum rebounded from a low of $1385 to $2700, with an increase of up to 97.7%. This reflects the dual nature of the capital market: institutional funds remain cautious in the ETF market, while the open interest in derivative contracts has reached a historic high of $32.2 billion. The market seems to hope that this rebound will prove that Ethereum is still a value play, and the Pectra upgrade also provides some support for this view. Through comprehensive data analysis, we can outline the current true state of Ethereum—a network experiencing a reconstruction of value is gradually emerging.

Caution in the ETF Market Coexists with Enthusiasm in the Futures Market

As of May 18, the total net assets of the U.S. ETH ETFs reached $8.97 billion, accounting for 2.89% of Ethereum's total market capitalization. In contrast, Bitcoin ETFs account for 5.95% of its total market capitalization, indicating a preference for Bitcoin in the ETF market.

From February to the end of April, the funds in the Ethereum ETF were mostly in a state of outflow. It wasn't until April 21 that the inflow began, but the overall scale of the inflow was not large. In April, the net inflow was approximately $66.25 million, and as of now in May, the net inflow is about $30 million.

According to the data, at the end of April, Ethereum's "Net Unrealized Profit/Loss" ( NUPL ) value turned positive. Previously, from April 1 to April 22, NUPL remained negative, indicating that most holding addresses were in a loss state at that time. As of May 17, NUPL reached a high of 0.328, still in the early stage of a bull market or recovery phase, and has not yet entered an extremely optimistic stage.

Interestingly, the number of addresses on the Ethereum chain with a balance greater than 1 has decreased after the price rebound, while it had been increasing during the previous decline. This indicates that some investors have chosen to take profits above $1800. Currently, the proportion of profitable addresses for Ethereum has reached 60%.

Although the recent price Rebound is still far from the historical high, the contract open interest has reached a new high. On May 14, the Ethereum contract open interest reached $32.249 billion, almost touching the historical peak. This reflects the market's continued high speculative enthusiasm for Ethereum.

Overall, at the end of April, Ethereum began to see positive capital inflows, leading to a significant price increase with a maximum rise of 97.7%. However, from the perspective of ETF fund flows, the proportion of traditional institutional capital increase is still not high.

TVL rebounds, but low Gas has not stimulated trading volume

In terms of on-chain activity, the number of active addresses on Ethereum has not changed significantly, fluctuating between 400,000 and 600,000 daily. This pattern has persisted for over a year, but recently there has been a trend of the curve breaking above 600,000.

The changes in TVL data are more significant. The TVL in USD has rebounded since April 22, rising from around 45 billion to a peak of 64.6 billion. However, considering the substantial increase in Ethereum prices, this may not reflect the true situation on-chain. Measured in ETH, the on-chain ETH staking amount has significantly decreased since April 9, dropping from a peak of 30.26 million to 24 million, a decline of 20%.

This phenomenon may be due to a reduction in the amount of tokens as some funds choose to take profits or avoid unearned losses during the rapid price increase.

Regarding Gas fees, as of May 16, the average Gas price on Ethereum was 3.572 Gwei, a significant decrease of 21.57% compared to the previous day and a sharp drop of 51.76% year-on-year. Over the past 30 days, Gas fees have generally shown a downward trend, with a brief spike to 10.61 Gwei on May 8, but recently have mostly stayed below 8 Gwei, dropping as low as 1.6 Gwei on May 3. This is related to EIP-7691 in the Pectra upgrade, which aims to reduce L2 costs by expanding blob space.

However, the extremely low Gas fees do not seem to have stimulated growth in on-chain transactions. Daily transaction volume data shows no significant changes.

DEX Trading and Asset Landscape: Stablecoin Dominance and Ecological Transformation

On-chain staking data shows that from April 15 to May 5, the staking volume of Ethereum continued to experience a net outflow. In particular, a certain trading platform has seen a 30% outflow in staking over the past six months. Currently, the validator with the most stake remains a certain protocol, with a staking volume of 9.11 million.

In terms of DEX trading volume, Ethereum's mainnet clearly enters an active period in 2025, surpassing its performance in 2024 and approaching the peak period from 2021 to 2022. However, from the income data perspective, the recent increase in trading activity mainly comes from stablecoin-related transactions, with USDT generating $568 million in fees on Ethereum over the past 30 days. As of May 18, Ethereum remains the public chain with the largest issuance of stablecoins, accounting for over 50%, with a total issuance of $127.3 billion, which is double its DeFi TVL.

Analyzing the categories of funds on the Ethereum blockchain, it can be seen that nearly half of the transactions are completed with stablecoins and ETH transfers. The proportion of stablecoin transactions has significantly increased, while the proportion of DeFi and ERC-20 token transactions continues to decline. This indicates that Ethereum is transitioning towards a role as a value storage center for on-chain assets, while the development of MEME and application types seems to be constrained. Therefore, Ethereum's strategy to boost activity by reducing transaction fees and increasing transaction speed may be difficult to achieve.

In addition, although the average on-chain transfer amount of Ethereum has decreased, it still ranges between several thousand dollars and 10,000 dollars, far exceeding other public chains. This highlights Ethereum's characteristic as a chain exclusive to large holders.

Overall, the recent price rebound of Ethereum seems more like a result of the pains during its transformation period. On one hand, the Ethereum ecosystem is working hard to optimize performance through continuous technological updates and upgrades, but the effects seem to be less than satisfactory. On the other hand, it has become a hub for large funds and stablecoin trading, and large holders seem to be relatively satisfied with the current on-chain status of Ethereum.

Therefore, the rise and fall of a single indicator can no longer simply define the merits of Ethereum. The market may need to move beyond past growth narratives and re-examine and understand the core role and long-term value of Ethereum in a multi-chain landscape. Rather than getting caught up in judging whether it is "rising" or "declining", it is better to recognize that after undergoing various transformations and iterations, a more mature and "stable" Ethereum may be the inevitable direction and ultimate form of its evolution.