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On-chain data interpretation: trend signals behind the strengthening of the crypto market
The crypto market is gaining strength again, on-chain data reveals market trends.
The price of Bitcoin has once again broken through the $94,000 mark, driving a general rise in various cryptocurrencies. Behind this round of market movement, has on-chain data already released signals of a bull market? By analyzing key indicators such as trading volume, user behavior, and token distribution, we can gain deeper insights into the underlying logic of market trends.
Trading Activity Analysis
According to data platform statistics, the total transaction amount across the network in the past 24 hours reached $39.9 billion, with more than 7.2 million transactions, 3.03 million active trading addresses, and involving 13,800 types of tokens. Since July 2023, the trading volume has continuously climbed from a low of 2M to 10M, especially after April 2024, where the growth rate has significantly accelerated, indicating a notable increase in market liquidity. Although there was a substantial decline in on-chain transaction numbers in March this year, the overall trend still shows a short-term upward movement.
Changes in Trader Structure
Trader trend data shows that the number of active traders dropped below 2M in October 2023 but quickly rebounded to 8M in the second half of 2024, maintaining a relatively high level in January 2025. This change highly corresponds with the market cycle's "recovery-explosion" phase. It is worth noting that the growth in the number of traders is not linear, with short-term adjustments occurring at mid-quarter (such as in May and August). The data also reveals the phased impact of significant news on institutional and retail investor sentiment. However, the current daily active trader count of 3.03M remains at a relatively low point, only about one-third of the peak period, and the subsequent trend awaits further observation.
On-chain asset distribution status
Among active traders, the data platform has classified wallet addresses based on their holdings. Currently, there are 1,052 "whale" wallets holding over $100 million in assets, while the number of small holders (under $10,000) is as high as approximately 214M, but their total holdings are far less than those of the whales. This "80/20 phenomenon" is quite common in financial markets—large funds often take the lead in positioning, followed by medium and small funds driving up asset prices. It is worth noting that the number of "medium" ($1M-$10M) and "small" ($10K-$100K) wallets also provides important support for market liquidity.
Comparison of Public Chain Ecosystems
Data shows that the daily transaction volume of the Polygon network is relatively stable, maintaining around 4K. Notably, data platforms indicate a significant decline in on-chain activities on the Ethereum network at the beginning of 2025, while price reactions are relatively lagging. As more Layer 1 public chains emerge, the decrease in the activity of the Ethereum ecosystem may reshape the market landscape.
Summary
Despite Bitcoin's price returning to $90,000 and many small market cap coins experiencing significant gains, the current on-chain transaction volume in the crypto market has not yet recovered to a more active level. With the advancement of new policies and regulatory measures in 2025, the structure of on-chain traders is showing a trend of diversification, with large funds and retail investors both being active. Even if new investment hotspots and sectors emerge, investors still need to closely monitor marginal changes in data, maintain rational judgment during high market heat, and pay attention to tracking large fund trends to avoid the short-term selling pressure risks that may arise from highly concentrated funds.