XRP Price Outlook for July 2025: on-chain, technical, Fundamental Analysis

On June 28, Gate reported that Ripple Labs CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced on social media that Ripple will abandon its cross-appeal in the case against the SEC, and Ripple will completely move on to focus on the most important thing—building the Internet of Value, as the overall situation is set. This also means that Ripple will accept a $125 million fine and the permanent injunction will continue to be in effect.

This latest development is of great significance for both Ripple and XRP. A new month has begun; will XRP see an upward trend?

XRP is showing typical bullish momentum on the charts, while macro and on-chain forces are quietly gaining strength, laying the groundwork for a potential breakout that traders may have underestimated in July.

As the descending wedge pattern tightens, XRP is expected to break out XRP is approaching the apex of a descending wedge pattern on the 3-day chart, increasing the likelihood of a decisive breakout in July.

This structure formed by the convergence of trend lines, if confirmed, usually indicates that the bullish momentum will continue. Currently, the trading price of XRP is around $2.23, hovering between the wedge's resistance line and support line.

After breaking through the upper trend line, the target price levels may be $2.92 and $3.63, depending on the timing and strength of the breakout.

During the formation of the wedge, the trading volume remains relatively stable, with the RSI (Relative Strength Index) hovering around the neutral level of 50.57, leaving room for directional movement.

It is worth noting that XRP continues to maintain above its 50-period (red) and 200-period (blue) exponential moving averages (EMA), reinforcing the bullish tendency.

However, without strong market catalysts, XRP may continue to consolidate within the wedge throughout July. A break below the wedge support level poses a risk of falling towards $1.82.

Does the fundamental of XRP support the rebound in July? The broader macro environment is favorable for XRP.

Bolstered by the rising possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, the stock market had a strong start in the third quarter. A shift towards loose monetary policy often weakens the dollar and redirects capital towards high-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The US Dollar Index ( DXY ) has started to pull back after a strong performance in the first half of 2025, easing some pressure on the cryptocurrency market.

As a risk asset, XRP is expected to benefit from this environment. The weakening of the dollar increases the appeal of alternative currencies like XRP, especially among investors looking to diversify away from traditional fiat currency risks.

From the perspective of the blockchain network, XRP has undergone a series of significant updates in recent weeks.

June 30: The XRP Ledger launched its EVM sidechain on the mainnet, enabling Ethereum DApps to run on the XRP Ledger, thereby expanding its DeFi and interoperability capabilities. June 24: The v2.5.0 protocol upgrade is released, introducing transaction batching, permissioned DEX, token custody, and enhanced compliance features, positioning the XRP Ledger as a DeFi platform for institutional users. June 19: The XRP Ledger introduces the decentralized governance platform XAO DAO and develops towards a community-controlled protocol. June 12: One of the world's largest stablecoins, USDC, is natively launched on the XRP Ledger, aiding enterprise payments and DeFi infrastructure development. However, these macro-positive factors have not translated into a significant increase in the participation of new traders.

On-chain data shows that the number of new addresses on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) has remained basically flat, indicating that despite improvements in the market environment, new demand is limited. The introduction of the USDC stablecoin on the XRPL may change this situation.

The actual price trend shows that XRP is actively accumulating According to Glassnode data, the actual price of short-term XRP holders (1 week to 3 months) is significantly higher than the overall average. This indicates that recent buyers are entering the market at a higher cost, demonstrating confidence in continued price increases.

At the same time, the group of long-term holders continues to show an upward trend, indicating that the market is in a steady accumulation phase rather than a profit-taking phase.

In fact, since XRP broke out in the fourth quarter of 2024, savvy investors have been actively accumulating XRP and holding positions during the consolidation period, which is often a reflection of the overall bullish sentiment in the market throughout July.

Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, please be aware of the related risks.

(Source: FXEmpire)