July Market Dynamics and Outlook: XRP Spot ETF Approval Probability Soars, Bitcoin ETF Inflows Continue

Gate news, the cryptocurrency market is ushering in a critical week! The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has recognized Grayscale's diversified crypto ETF application that includes XRP, instantly igniting the rise of XRP and significantly boosting market expectations for the approval of an XRP spot ETF this year—Bloomberg analysts even provided a 95% probability. Meanwhile, although Bitcoin has temporarily halted its three consecutive rises, its spot ETF market is on the verge of a 20-day consecutive inflow record, highlighting strong institutional demand. With the SEC's final review results on Grayscale's new ETF set to be revealed this week, and the potential withdrawal of the key appeal in the Ripple case, can XRP ride the ETF wave to enter a big pump mode? Can Bitcoin reach new highs amidst interest rate cut expectations and policy games? The July market may thus be set in motion.

Key Points:

• SEC Recognizes Grayscale ETF Application Boosting XRP: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)'s approval of Grayscale (Grayscale)'s modified application has triggered a rebound in XRP and raised market expectations for the approval of a Spot ETF.
• XRP Monthly Close Rises: Driven by the possibility of the SEC withdrawing its appeal and expectations for the ETF, XRP rose 1.42% on June 30 (Monday), ending June's trading on a positive note.
• XRP Spot ETF Approval Expectations Rise: Bloomberg analysts predict that by 2025, the probability of XRP Spot ETF approval could reach as high as 95%; however, the likelihood shown on the Polymarket platform has dropped to 60.2%.
• Bitcoin Ends Three-Day Rise: Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a pullback after three consecutive days of rise, possibly influenced by profit-taking and cautious sentiment ahead of key legislative voting.
• Strong Inflow Momentum for US Bitcoin Spot ETF: Market expectations are that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates multiple times in 2025, coupled with easing global trade tensions, driving sustained demand for US Bitcoin Spot ETFs. There have been net inflows for 15 consecutive days.

XRP Spot ETF Expected to Drive Breakthrough Rally

On June 30 (Monday), news indicated that the SEC has officially approved the rule change amendment submitted by Grayscale. The application aims to transform its "Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund" (GDLC) into a "Grayscale Digital Large Cap ETF" (GDLC). In addition to holding Bitcoin (BTC), the ETF will also hold XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL), Ethereum (ETH), and Cardano (ADA).

• As of June 30, the fund's holding ratio:
  • BTC: 79.9%
  • ETH: 11.32%
  • XRP: 4.99%
  • SOL: 3.01%
  • ADA: 0.78%

The approval of GDLC may accelerate the launch of the XRP Spot ETF market in the United States, which is expected to become the next catalyst for XRP prices. ETF Store President Nate Geraci commented on the SEC decision that the ETF will soon face, stating:

"One of the ancillary benefits of the SEC approving GDLC is that it provides a great 'test run' for including more crypto assets in the ETF packaging... XRP, SOL, and ADA collectively account for less than 10% of the holdings in GDLC. This is a simple way to gradually step into other assets."

The final decision deadline is this week, which may make Grayscale a pioneering leader in the spot ETF market for altcoins. In 2023, Grayscale won a lawsuit against the SEC, forcing the SEC to reconsider its decision to reject Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) conversion into a Bitcoin spot ETF. This court victory paved the way for the birth of the Bitcoin spot ETF market in the United States. Since its launch, the market has recorded a total net inflow of $48.52 billion, propelling Bitcoin to a historic high of $111,917 in May 2025.

The similar demand for the XRP Spot ETF may push XRP to unprecedented highs. Regarding the potential success of the XRP Spot ETF market, Nate Geraci commented:

"We will see the actual effects after the Spot ETF is approved. However, the enthusiasm of the XRP community far exceeds people's expectations. Based on my experience on this platform, if I were to rank the levels of enthusiasm: 1) BTC, 2) XRP, 3) HBAR, 4) ETH, 5) SOL."

Under the expectation of the SEC's appeal withdrawal, the approval chances for the XRP Spot ETF have increased

Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas predict that by the end of 2025, the probability of XRP Spot ETF approval is as high as 95%. The deadline for the final decision on the XRP Spot ETF application is October 17.

Despite optimistic views from Bloomberg analysts, the prediction market platform Polymarket gives a 60.2% chance of the XRP Spot ETF being approved by December 2025, down from a high of 98.2% on June 3.

It is worth noting that the resolution of the SEC vs Ripple case may be a key stepping stone towards the XRP Spot ETF market. Last week, Ripple announced plans to abandon its cross-appeal, and investors are waiting for the SEC to announce the abandonment of its appeal against the ruling on XRP programmatic sales. Submitting a motion to withdraw the appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals may signal a green light for the XRP Spot ETF market.

XRP Price Outlook: SEC Appeal Expectations and ETF Progress

Driven by the SEC's potential withdrawal of the appeal and market expectations for the XRP Spot ETF, XRP rose 1.42% on June 30 (Monday), continuing a rise of 0.93% on Sunday, closing at 2.2382 USD. The token outperformed the overall market (the overall crypto market fell 0.88%, with a total market cap dropping to 3.27 trillion USD).

• Short-term XRP price outlook depends on the SEC's direction regarding the appeal and the agency's decision on the Grayscale Digital Large Cap ETF.

  • Upside Potential: If it breaks through the high of June 16 at 2.3389 USD, it may indicate a move towards the May high of 2.6553 USD. A sustained breakthrough of 2.6553 USD could pave the way for a challenge of the January 16 high of 3.3999 USD.

  • Downward risk: If it falls below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), it may test the 200-day EMA and the support level of 1.9299 USD.

    

Bitcoin ends three consecutive rises

While XRP rises due to ETF news and legal developments, Bitcoin (BTC) has ended its three-day upward trend. The pullback in BTC may stem from profit-taking ahead of key votes on Capitol Hill.

On June 30, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, OBBB( became the focus, which includes encryption tax amendments. Regarding Bitcoin taxation, Senator Cynthia Lummis stated:

"For many years, miners and stakers have been double taxed. Once when they receive block rewards, and again when they sell. It's time to stop this unfair tax treatment and ensure that the United States becomes the world's Bitcoin and Crypto Assets superpower."

Relaxing encryption taxes may further drive Bitcoin adoption in the United States, especially considering BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust IBIT is absorbing supply. On June 30, market intelligence platform Santiment published a post about IBIT demand and the broader Bitcoin supply, which pointed out:

"According to Santiment data, the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges is reaching low levels. Meanwhile, BlackRock is buying more BTC daily than the network can mine! In just the last week, they purchased a total of 12,354 BTC over 5 days. However, only 450 BTC can be mined each day. Supply is disappearing, and price pressure is building."

The US Bitcoin Spot ETF market aims for a continuous inflow for sixteen days

Market expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 have heated up, coupled with easing global trade tensions, driving demand for the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF.

According to data from Farside Investors, the key capital flows in the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF market as of June 30 include:

• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF )ARKB( recorded a net outflow of 10.2 million dollars.
• In the absence of the IBIT capital flow data to be released, the total net outflow of the US Bitcoin Spot ETF is 10.2 million dollars.

The longest consecutive inflow record in the Spot ETF market is 19 trading days (from May 13, 2024, to June 10, 2024). IBIT needs to record one more trading day of inflow to maintain the overall consecutive inflow momentum of the current market (Note: The original text indicates that there was a continuous inflow for 15 days at that time, and the 16th day of inflow is needed to continue the trend).

Bitcoin Price Outlook: Trade Dynamics, Federal Reserve Signals, and ETF Fund Flows

Bitcoin fell 1.09% on June 30, reversing last Sunday’s 0.94% rise, closing at 107,167 USD.

• Short-term price trends depend on several key driving factors:

  • Signals of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut
  • Global Trade Development
  • Legislative News
  • ETF capital flow

• Potential Scenario:

  • Bearish Scenario: Easing global trade tensions, legislative delays, hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, and outflows from ETFs. This combination of factors could drag BTC towards the 200-day exponential moving average )EMA(, bringing 100,000 USD into view.
  • Bullish Scenario: The escalation of the global trade war, bipartisan support for encryption legislation, dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, and inflows into ETFs. In these scenarios, BTC may challenge its historical high of 111,917 USD again.
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Future Focus Points

Investors should pay close attention:

1. Announcement by SEC regarding appeal plan
2. Legislative News
3. Trade Headlines
4. Comments from Federal Reserve Officials
5. ETF Capital Flow

These factors are crucial for the short-term price trend and will determine whether XRP or BTC will reach a new all-time high.

Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, please be aware of the risks.

(Source: FXEmpire)