QCP: Bitcoin steadies after a pullback, Ethereum shows relatively strong performance, and the market is awaiting signals of a Fed policy shift.

Bitcoin broke through 120,000 USD and then experienced a short-term pullback, with 114,000 USD forming local support QCP noted in its latest market report that BTC recently broke through 120,000 USD strongly, leading to a pullback, with the price briefly dipping to 114,000 USD. Subsequently, buying pressure returned, and the market began to stabilize. The current trend indicates that while Bitcoin's short-term momentum has cooled, it remains in a strong structural bullish trend.

The traditional financial market enters the off-season in summer, and the US stock market shows signs of fatigue in its upward trend. As the summer holiday approaches, the trading volume in traditional financial markets has significantly decreased. The US stock market has slowed its upward momentum since early July, particularly the S&P 500 index, which has entered a consolidation phase, possibly indicating exhaustion among bulls. Despite facing multiple headwinds such as elevated benchmark tariffs and new sanctions threats against countries purchasing Russian oil, the US stock market still maintains a relatively high level.

The recent rise of the S&P 500 is mainly driven by Nvidia (NVDA), which has repeatedly hit new highs since July and has become a major force behind the index's record peaks. The other "Seven Giants" have performed reasonably well, but it's difficult for them to drive the overall market.

The US dollar index has fallen 10% this year, driving the performance of US dollar assets upward The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen by 10% since the beginning of the year, boosting dollar-denominated assets including US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin. However, if we exclude the factor of dollar depreciation, the "real" prices of the aforementioned assets are still below historical highs.

Currently, the market's net short dollar position has not been excessive, but if the dollar experiences a sharp rebound, risk assets may face synchronized correction pressure.

US inflation hovers around 2.5%, and the market still faces external shock risks Latest data shows that the inflation rate in the United States remains at 2.5%, making it difficult to continue to decline in the short term. The current "inflation plateau" makes the market more sensitive to external price shocks. Although the Federal Reserve still signals a possible interest rate cut in the next quarter, uncertainty is increasing, and investors need to be alert to possible changes in the timing of policy shifts.

Structurally bullish on Bitcoin, Ethereum remains strong supported by enterprise on-chain deployments QCP reiterates its bullish outlook on Bitcoin in the medium to long term, believing that if there is a short-term pullback to the previous cycle high of $110,000, it may instead lay a more solid foundation for the subsequent upward trend.

At the same time, Ethereum (ETH) has performed relatively strongly, partly due to the diversified treasury asset allocation of SharpLink (SBET), as well as an increasing number of companies referencing this strategy to accelerate ETH accumulation. The on-chain activity and corporate demand for ETH have increased, further solidifying its position as a major asset for institutional entry.

Summary Despite the challenges in the short-term market, such as profit-taking, adjustments in the US stock market, and the risk of a dollar rebound, Bitcoin and Ethereum still demonstrate strong resilience. Especially against the backdrop of continuous institutional entry and the rising appeal of dollar-denominated assets, the crypto market is moving towards a more mature structural cycle.