Is BNB About to Break? Chain Data, Transactions, and Derivatives Signal Risks

Binance Coin has shown little price movement over the past day, holding near previous levels. However, the underlying data suggests weakening demand and increasing sell pressure, raising questions about its short term trajectory. Interest in using the BNB Chain network has decreased significantly. The number of daily transactions processed on the chain has dropped sharply, reaching its lowest level this month. Data from BscScan confirms this decline, showing that transactions have decreased by 12.02% from recent highs to about 12.7 million. Fewer transactions typically mean less usage of the network and its native token, BNB. This waning interest seems to be discouraging new participants. The number of new addresses created on the chain has decreased by 25% over the past day.

Adding to the pressure, current active users seem to be selling. According to Artemis, the number of addresses performing more than 100 transactions daily has increased during the same period. This activity often signals that traders are moving assets. Supporting this, the daily trading volume of BNB has decreased by 8% to 1.29 billion dollars. The Derivatives Market Turns Negative The sentiment in the BNB futures market has also turned bearish. Traders are increasingly positioning for the possibility of a price drop. The options market shows a strong move away from BNB, with open interest - reflecting active contracts - decreasing by 71.36% to $3.09 million. This sharp decline indicates widespread contract closures, likely including many bets on higher prices being liquidated.

An important indicator of the overall sentiment of derivative products, the weighted funding rate of open interest, has shifted to a negative level, recording -0.0023%. This indicator means that traders holding contracts betting on lower prices (sell short) are currently paying those betting on higher prices (buy into), confirming that the bearish outlook is prevailing. Sell At Spot Only Shows Weaker Points The spot market, where tokens are traded directly, reflects the cautious behavior seen on-chain and in derivative products. Selling activity has increased, with traders exchanging $2.18 million BNB for other assets like stablecoins. Over the past week, this selling pressure has accumulated to $36 million flowing out of BNB. The continuous selling in these areas – reducing network usage, derivative bets decreasing in price, and direct liquidations in the spot market – creates resistance for the BNB price. If these conditions persist, the likelihood of further price declines will become evident.

Binance Coin (BNB) is trading at 648.26 USDT, showing a modest daily increase of +0.15%. The weekly performance is slightly positive at +0.79%, while the token remains under monthly pressure with a decrease of -5.85%. Compared to the same period last year, BNB increased by 11.42%, a remarkable profit due to Binance's sustainable dominance in the centralized exchange ecosystem and the expansion of use cases for BNB Chain.

According to technical analysis, BNB is currently showing strong bullish signals across multiple time frames. On the daily and weekly charts, technical indicators such as moving averages and oscillators are aligned with buy signals or strong buy signals.

Price volatility remains relatively low at 0.63%, implying reduced price fluctuations during the day but with a tendency to stabilize. The asset is still trading below its all-time high of $793.86 ( set in December 2024), but it is showing signs of resilience and may be setting up for a re-accumulation phase. In terms of catalyst news, BNB is attracting attention due to the ongoing developments in the Binance Smart Chain (BNB Chain), including the upcoming implementation of ZK-rollup that promises to improve scalability and gas efficiency. Binance has also launched a new integrated organizational framework, attracting major exchanges and custodians. Additionally, BNB continues to benefit from Binance's burn mechanism — the most recent quarterly burn removed over 2.3 million BNB tokens from circulation, reducing supply and supporting price increases. Another noteworthy development is the increasing adoption of Binance's Launchpad and Launchpool features, which require staking BNB to participate. This continuously creates periodic spikes in demand and has enhanced the utility of the token beyond trading discounts.