US stocks are experiencing a double collapse in encryption, is the market in Capitulation? Let's first take advantage of a short-term surge in Token!

Sweetie Sweeps the Coin Circle

March 11, 2025 16:56
Henan

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The situation is not good, the market seems to be Capitulation.
Is the '312' market pre-showing? Bitcoin hits a new low, Ethereum plunges significantly, US stocks plummeted last night, and Tesla's stock price was halved! The reason for the crash: recession➡️US stocks➡️crypto market $BTC: 1-hour divergence correction, price stops falling and rebounds, at the upper boundary of the 1-hour range, showing strength at the small level. Although the 4-hour chart is still downward, there are signs of a halt in the candlesticks, currently blocked at the 4-hour MA7 of 80,500. The daily chart does not show a signal to stop falling, yesterday's candlestick lacks a bottoming out pattern. Overall, there is a rebound in the hourly chart, but the trend is weak, focus on the 4-hour resistance levels of 83,000 and Fibonacci 83,500. The intraday trend is weak, if it cannot break through, it is likely to test lower levels. If US stocks rebound tonight and drive BTC, the 84,600 resistance level can be considered, based on the current market situation, reaching this level may be the limit unless there is a major positive development in the market. $ETH still performs poorly, Liangzi made nearly 10 million by shorting it yesterday. ETH continued to decline after breaking below 2000, dropping to a low of 1754. The weekly chart shows a double top and breaks below the 2000 support, with continuous outflows of funds. If the market turns completely bearish, 800 is not impossible. Reclaiming 2100 can give investors some confidence, otherwise, they can only wait for 800. The weekly levels of 1530, 1090, and 920 are all great opportunities. Stop fantasizing about a bull market? At most, it can be considered a 'partial bear market,' or it is the process of seeking a new consensus at the bottom after the end of the trend.
Currently in: [①interest rate cut continuation+②end of balance sheet reduction+③uncertainty of government policies (standoff between the Fed and Trump)] It is obvious that the macro environment configuration for the bear market in 2022-2023 has not yet been reached, but it is a time for directional decision-making—when will the market stabilize in the direction of 'reinflation' or 'recession and recovery'? Now everyone is watching the Fed, waiting to see when it will take action.
There is basically no chance of interest rate cut in March, with a 52.1% probability of interest rate cut in May and an 86.2% probability of interest rate cut in June. The market believes that the Fed will probably cut interest rates in June, and the start of the interest rate cut is the start of the next bullish reversal trend! There will be CPI data tomorrow, so hopefully the emotions can stabilize a bit, and then the next stabilizing factor will be around March 20th! #币圈观察员#