Arthur Hayes latest interview: cash out now, BTC to hit $250,000 by the end of next year

Compile | Wu said Block chain

In a recent interview on the podcast Alpha First, Arthur Hayes shared his bold predictions for the future of the encryption coin market. He believes that with the Trump administration in power, the loose monetary policy in the United States will lead to a depreciation of the US dollar, which will in turn drive up the prices of BTC and other encryption assets. He also discussed global inflation, monetary policies of sovereign countries, and how BTC and other encryption assets like memecoins can benefit from them. He emphasized the importance for investors to remain vigilant in a bull market and not to overlook market risks due to greed. In addition, he looked ahead to future market trends and predicted that BTC could reach a milestone of $250,000 by 2025.

Please note: The views of each guest do not represent the views of Wu, and Wu does not endorse any products or coins. Readers are strictly required to comply with local laws and regulations.

Listen to the full Podcast (YouTube):

Trump's economic policies will lead to a depreciation of the US dollar and benefit Bitcoin.

Dreamer: The election has just ended for a few weeks, and there have been many changes in the market price. What can we expect in the next 12 months? Do you have any vision to share with us? What is worth following in the whole pattern of Crypto Assets prediction?

Arthur: From my point of view, the market's prediction is correct. They expect Trump and his new cabinet members to print a large amount of money in the United States. One of their campaign promises is to attract manufacturing and industrial enterprises back to the United States through a weak dollar policy. Then, they will inject a large amount of funds through bank loans to increase the credit volume in the U.S. economy, promoting production and raising wage levels. All of these will lead to inflation.

The ultimate losers are those who save dollars or hold government bonds. And those who have assets with a fixed supply, such as BTC, will perform exceptionally well. We are already seeing this trend, right?

So, I drew some data and compared the total amount of bank credit in the United States with the performance of BTC. Currently, BTC is clearly leading. This shows that if Trump takes office, his plan is very clear - to weaken the US dollar, stimulate the market with credit, get people back to work, and restore US production capacity. I think he will execute this plan.

Will BTC reach $1 million?

Scott: There's a follow-up question about Trump. You made a bold prediction that if Trump were elected, BTC would reach $1 million. Do you still think everything will develop as expected? Do you still have confidence?

Arthur: I am confident, but not sure if it will be achieved in a short time. In fact, this trend started when Trump was elected president in 2016. At that time, he initiated a trade war against China, and this policy has been continued by the Democratic Party and the Biden administration. So now, this confrontation has become deeply ingrained in American political culture.

The United States has transferred most of its manufacturing and production capacity to China and Asia in the past. These countries have gained a competitive advantage by weakening their currencies, affecting American workers. Therefore, the United States must bring these industries back home. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to allocate hundreds of billions of dollars in loans to companies so that they can be profitable domestically in the United States.

Biden has passed measures such as the CHIPS Act, infrastructure bill, and green new deal, all of which require significant financial support. This trend will continue.

Global economic policies will drive inflation rise and benefit encryption assets

Dreamer: People in the encryption field are usually the most subversive. There are many things worth discussing around Trump. From the domestic perspective, your point of view makes sense and also makes many people optimistic. But if we look at it from an international perspective, how will the election affect foreign policy, war, and trade? For Asia, some policies may bring certain fears. Will these policies have a negative impact on the economy or Crypto Assets? Or do we not need to worry too much?

Arthur: I believe that fundamentally, every country is now pursuing a 'country first' policy. The United States has put forward 'America First', while China hopes to bring prosperity back to rural areas or low-income groups through 'common prosperity'. Therefore, the Chinese government has suppressed the real estate bubble, and now is stimulating the economy again through loose monetary policy.

Japan is undergoing capital inflows, which will boost its economy, but also requires more credit to prevent bank bankruptcies. Europe, on the other hand, has fallen into distress due to cutting off cheap energy sources from Russia and turning to expensive energy imports from the United States. However, they still need to support business operations, so they will also adopt stimulus policies.

So every country is trying to take care of its own people, which means restoring local industries and increasing demand for goods. This trend will drive global inflation rise, further suppressing the long-term outlook for bond yields.

In such an environment, Cryptocurrency will perform well. Although policies may seem different in different countries, they actually pursue the same goal of prioritizing the needs of their own citizens. This requires an increase in internal credit distribution and expansion of supply to support production and create employment opportunities for people. This global trend is a great advantage for BTC and other encryption assets.

Will the rise of BTC drive other encryption assets?

Dreamer: It seems to be Cryptocurrency, especially a great opportunity for BTC. But what about other Cryptocurrencies? Do you think they will be affected by the rise of BTC? Are you a BTC supremacist, thinking that only BTC has prospects, and others will not follow? Or do you think other projects like Ethereum will have a chance? For example, Non-fungible Token, meme coins, and Decentralized Finance, these trends have been fluctuating. Will they also benefit from the rise in the market? Or will they mainly follow institutional investors, thinking that only BTC will attract funds?

Arthur: I actually don't follow the trends of institutional investors because people always say they will enter the market, but regardless, they have their own complex investment logic and credit considerations, and there are reasons for buying or not buying. From the perspective of retail investors, when the price of BTC rises, the most important asset for everyone is BTC. When my wealth in BTC increases, I don't want to go back to Fiat Currency because it doesn't make sense, right? I won't just invest in BTC either. I want to invest in other encryption assets that have a greater increase than BTC.

What else can we do? We will pay attention to meme coins, new Layer 1 blockchains, Layer 2 projects, Non-fungible Tokens, and the gaming sector, etc. BTC leads the market, and then funds will gradually flow into other categories of assets. Ultimately, the goal is to earn more cryptocurrency, not to exchange for Fiat Currency. I believe Fiat Currency will eventually go to zero.

Scott: Yes, I think everyone will try to make quick profits and even become addicted to this rapid growth. After all, it is one of the fastest-growing asset classes. If you profit from Bitcoin, many people will not convert back to Fiat Currency, but instead turn to other encryption assets that still have potential. You also mentioned that meme coins in this cycle have surprised everyone, just like Non-fungible Tokens in the previous cycle. I heard you hold some meme coins. Is this part of the market interesting to you? How did meme coins perform in this cycle? Can they easily reach a market cap of billions of dollars?

Arthur: This is indeed very interesting, I like it very much. This phenomenon is interesting and fun, like the meme coin Squirrel, which went from zero to 2 billion dollars in just about nine days. Just because the US government executed a squirrel, it became a 2 billion dollar meme coin traded globally. This phenomenon shows how we quickly respond to hotspots in global culture and make them interesting through meme coins. Now, everyone knows about the squirrel that was 'executed' by the US government or the state of New York. So there is a meme coin around it.

This is both interesting and reflective of reality. There may also be a subculture of dissatisfaction with the government, such as their inflationary policies. This phenomenon also makes meme coins a rapidly spreading attention market.

The rapid rise of MemeCoin demonstrates the responsiveness of global culture.

Dreamer: We still have some existence like "blue chip" meme coins, like those meme coins related to current affairs that you just mentioned. I think these meme coins will fluctuate, but we also have some meme coins that have already stabilized, such as Dogecoin. Some people say it will rise to $1, do you think it's possible?

Arthur: I think it's possible. It's very interesting, especially when it comes to government efficiency departments or new 'ELON' like characters. They have confirmed something that has become a classic meme in itself. I wish I had bought some at the time because these memes are really good and fun. ELON is a very talented meme creator, possibly one of the best meme creators in history. Despite my doubts about his business model, he is undoubtedly a genius in meme art. So, Dogecoin could indeed reach $1.

However, I feel that when people begin to realize how great the gap between government propaganda and actual results is, there will be a feeling of "falling from the altar." People may re-examine the meaning of these memes and the messages they convey. This transformation will be very interesting.

Advice for newcomers: Stay rational and cash out in a timely manner during the bull run.

Dreamer: There are now many technologies that make it easier for people to launch new Layer 1 Block projects or memecoins. I think we're going to see more ideas pouring into the space, and there's also more specialization trends coming in. In addition, as you mentioned, the momentum generated by the elections has also been very strong. If we look back, such as the rise of Decentralized Finance and Non-fungible Tokens, and other trends that were once hyped, the excitement was similar. So, what lessons or cautionary tales are worth sharing? Especially for people who are experiencing the LONGS market for the first time, what would you advise them to pay attention to along the way? How to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past in this "beautiful and cruel world"?

Arthur: First of all, no one can profit from the market forever. Everyone knows that you can make money quickly in a bull run, but the key is how to keep these profits. For example, the meme coin you currently hold may not exist in one or two months. Its market capitalization could fall from $200 million to $5 million, the changes are so drastic. You can't predict these things.

Some statistics show that only about 0.01% of meme coins have a market capitalization of over $500 million, and most traders end up losing money. Many people see huge profits on paper, but they always hold the emotion of "I can earn more", which eventually leads to losing the wealth they already have.

So, if you have made some money that can change your destiny, take out some cash. The market will always have a chance to come back. Maybe you can take a break, calm down for a while, and then reassess the market. It is very important to stay rational.

Are there potential risks or catalysts in the market?

Scott: In this situation, people are easily experiencing a roller-coaster-like market fluctuation. As you mentioned, some assets may disappear within a month or two. Some people indeed make life-changing money in just a few days, like the meme coin Peanut. But even coins with a market cap of 2 billion dollars can quickly have a big dump. Therefore, your point is right, it is necessary to cash out in a timely manner, whether it's meme coins or BTC, gradually exiting some positions. As you said, taking profits will not incur losses.

Dreamer: Are there any 'Black Swan Event' or potential catalysts that could disrupt the market? Looking back over the past few years, such as the collapse of FTX or other unforeseen events, are there any trends or entities that we need to be vigilant about? Under the new Trump administration, has the market cleared these uncertainties and become simpler for development?

Arthur: I think many have already been cleared out. Many people suffered heavy losses in the FTX, Genesis, Three Arrows, and Luna incidents. So maybe Bitcoin has already risen to $100,000 now (maybe it will be this price when you release this interview). But in the long run, when traditional financial funds see the price of cryptocurrency rise, they will want to participate, for example, through venture capital.

Many venture capital companies have raised a large amount of funds, similar to the previous cycle, they need to find large companies or important projects to invest in. In the early stages of the market, these funds are usually allocated reasonably and put to good use. However, as the long market deepens, funds may flow into certain 'hot areas' because investors have to invest in order to gain returns. In this case, it is possible to see some business models built on the assumption of continuously rising prices, leading to the accumulation of risks and ultimately market imbalance.

At present, I still don't know which sector will experience this situation, but we have not yet reached the 'overheating' stage. Especially when TradFi capital enters, there may be overinvestment in certain areas, which is where investors need to be vigilant to avoid 'shuffling' when market prices diverge from actual conditions.

Dreamer: Yes, when I heard you speak, I thought that when people have many successful trades, they become bored and eager to experience that feeling of quick profits again. Currently, many BTC layer 2 protocols have announced profit plans, but where do these profits come from? We don't want to repeat the mistakes of promising high returns without a solid foundation. Others may seek more trends to pursue big profits, but this also increases risks. So, for those who have experienced the previous bull market, I hope they can learn from the lessons, and for newcomers, I also hope they can learn from others' experiences.

Casual Chat about Skiing

This interview is very exciting. We really appreciate your time. There is an IFC event tonight - a credit confrontation, and I don't know if you and others have time to participate. This is a global event, and we really hope to have the opportunity to invite you to participate in the future. I believe you will enjoy this type of event, enjoying the influence of prominent figures in the field of competition and encryption in activities. Now I will hand the microphone over to Scott to end this interview.

Scott: Yes, we really appreciate your time and sitting down with us to answer these questions. It would be great to see you at the IFC. One last easy question: What do you do when you're not involved in cryptocurrency? What are your hobbies? How do you relax or detach from work? Are you a food lover, for example? Do you go out and try new restaurants? Or do you have other ways to stay motivated?

Arthur: I really enjoy skiing. So every year I spend three to four months on the mountain, immersed in the snow. During the ski season, I ski for eight hours a day. Besides sports and outdoor activities, I hardly do anything else. This makes me very happy.

Scott: Where is your favorite place to ski?

Arthur: Niseko in Japan. Their powder snow is fantastic, dry and light. It snows every year from January to February, which is simply amazing there.

Scott: So are you preparing now? Adjusting your state?

Arthur: Yes, I'm preparing for skiing. However, the only drawback of Japanese ski resorts is that the slope is not steep enough, and there are no very dramatic steep snow paths.

Dreamer: The ski resort in Salt Lake City will have a lake effect. I live in Singapore, but used to live in the United States and often went skiing, but I am a snowboard player.

Scott: Me too! Although I still ski, I prefer snowboarding. Some places are more suitable for snowboarding.

Dreamer: Yes, some places are very suitable. You won't encounter snowboarders "trampling" your tracks on the ski slopes.

Scott: This is awesome! I haven't skied in a few years, but it's a hobby I've always wanted to pick up again. I'm from the Northeastern United States, grew up in New Jersey and New York, so it was easy to go skiing in Vermont. However, for the past ten years, I've been living in Houston, so skiing is not as convenient anymore. It's no longer just a matter of packing up and driving a few hours to get there.

Scott: I hope you have a great time in the coming days. I really want to go to Japan to experience the joy of skiing. I didn't expect that there would be such great skiing conditions there. I have to try it in the future.

BTC price predictions for the end of this year and 2025

Scott: By the way, let me ask a specific question. What do you think the price of BTC will be at the end of this year and at this time next year?

Arthur: I believe BTC will reach $100,000 by the end of this year and possibly $250,000 by the end of 2025.

Scott: Did you hear that? This is the first prediction announced by Alpha First: the year-end price of BTC will reach $100,000, and it may reach $250,000 a year later. Maybe we will have the opportunity to go to DevCon and other events again next year to verify this prediction. I hope it will be more than just $250,000 by then.

(The above content is excerpted and reproduced with the authorization of the partner PANews, original link | Source: Wu Shuo Blockchain)

Disclaimer: The article represents the author's personal views only, not the objective viewpoint and position of Block. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and trades, and the author and Block will not be responsible for any direct or indirect losses incurred by investors in their transactions.

The article 'Arthur Hayes' latest interview: cash out now, BTC will hit $250,000 by the end of next year' was first published in 'Block Times'.