Is the turnaround coming!? After the consolidation in the short term, will it retest the bottom or choose to attack 60,000? Can this short-term upward trend change the downturn in the market?

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The price of BTC saw a medium-length Bullish line yesterday, bringing a glimmer of hope to the previously unfriendly market. So, is BTC ready for a breakthrough at this level, or is it just a brief Rebound? Let's analyze in detail.

First of all, there was a certain amount of selling pressure above the medium and long-term Bullish line of BTC yesterday, accompanied by Upper Shadow. At the same time, we can see that the volume at the bottom has increased, so the fluctuation of BTC reached 6% yesterday, not without reason. So, is it possible for BTC to continue to rise after a slight pullback?

From the daily candlestick level, BTC has reached the resistance level at approximately $57,300. This is an important support level on August 15th and September 2nd. If this level can be broken, BTC is expected to reach a new short-term high again. However, there is also some pressure at this level. Therefore, it is necessary to observe where BTC might find support next.

If we analyze the trend of BTC at a small level, we can draw a channel using the lowest and highest points of the previous wicks and press on their bodies. The BTC price has just touched the upper track of the expansion channel, at around $58,880. At this position, BTC has a long upward wick, indicating significant pressure on the upper track of this channel, thus starting to fall back.

During the pullback, the first support is located around $55,600, which is approximately at the lower channel. The second support is around $54,800. Therefore, if BTC can stop falling in the range of $54,800 to $55,600, then it may continue to challenge new highs, which could be above $59,000, close to $60,000. If BTC can find support at this level and push up to $60,000, it may mean that the bearish trend of BTC is about to end.

Let's take a look at the trend of BTC from the weekly level again. Currently, BTC has fallen below the 30-week moving average and formed a Bearish line with upper and lower shadows in the previous week. The 5-week moving average has also fallen below the 30-week moving average, forming a shorts signal. Currently, the price of the 30-week moving average is about $58,800. If BTC can stop falling at $54,800 to $55,600 and rise to $60,000, it will regain the support of the 30-week moving average, and at this point, we need to adjust our perspective.

Looking back in history, the last time BTC fell below the 30-week moving average was around $25,000. At that time, BTC consolidated for about 6 weeks after falling below the 30-week moving average, and it wasn't until the sixth week that a 'one yang piercing three' Candlestick pattern appeared. The price then briefly pulled back and oscillated before finally experiencing a breakthrough in the fourth week. Therefore, if BTC can form a similar Candlestick combination at some point in the future, it means that the adjustment of BTC is about to end.

However, we still need time to observe whether BTC can form such a situation. The last time BTC consolidated lasted for 6 to 8 weeks, now it is September, and consolidating for two months means we have to wait until around November. Therefore, we should not expect too early, but verify our analysis and judgment through time.

If BTC fails to meet our expectations, there are other possible trends. Looking back at BTC's Bear Market in November 2021, it continued to decline to the 120-week moving average after breaking below the 30-week moving average, and then consolidated above the 120-week moving average for about two months before rebounding. However, this rebound is only a second wave rebound and does not change the overall trend.

In addition to this exception, we can also refer to the trend in 2019. At that time, BTC also fell below the 30-week moving average, and finally formed a triple bottom near $28,000, with a consolidation period of two to three months. Therefore, we conclude that the adjustment period of BTC after breaking the 30-week moving average is relatively long.

In addition, if BTC is to achieve an upward breakthrough, it must be accompanied by the iconic One White Soldier pattern. This was also reflected in the 519 incident. Therefore, it is necessary to follow the trend of BTC next.

According to Jiu Ge's analysis, BTC may have three possible trends in the future:

1. BTC may consolidate below the 30-week moving average for several weeks before breaking out to the upside. During the breakout, there may be a bullish pattern known as a one white soldier piercing three.
2. BTC continues to probe down to the vicinity of the 120-week moving average, forming support around the $44,000 to $45,000 area, and then choosing a direction after several weeks of consolidation.
3. BTC formed a double bottom near $50,000 and then rallied upwards.

No matter what trend occurs, we must remember one thing: Bitcoin must show a yang piercing through three to break the decline.