Bitcoin ETF Holdings are approaching 1.3 million coins and may break 1.5 million coins by the end of the year.

According to the holdings data tracked by WalletPilot, if the current net inflow rate remains unchanged, the Bitcoin spot ETF is expected to hold over 1.5 million BTC by the end of the year. This holdings amount will exceed the estimated number of lost Bitcoins (approximately 1.4 million BTC).

As of August 13, the total Holdings of Bitcoin Spot ETFs in the United States is approximately 1.296 million BTC, accounting for nearly 6.5% of the circulating supply. In the past 30 days, all funds have added a net increase of about 17,393 BTC. If this pace continues, the total ETF Holdings will exceed 1.5 million by December.

The IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) under BlackRock has the highest holdings ratio, managing about 744,500 BTC. Since the fund's launch in January 2024, this open interest has accounted for approximately 3.3% of the total Bitcoin supply.

In recent months, IBIT has been increasing its holdings by an average of about 4,300 BTC per month. If the capital flow remains stable, just the IBIT fund alone could potentially add about 130,000 BTC to its reserves by the end of the year, further exacerbating the concentration of holdings by a single issuer.

At the same time that the ETF holdings increased, the price of Bitcoin also climbed to around $124,000, a historical high. The achievement of this level is closely related to the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates later this year.

These funds have attracted over $50 billion in assets under management (AUM) over a period of more than a year. Their stable net inflow rate has exceeded the new issuance of Bitcoin mining (after the halving in April 2024, the daily issuance is approximately 450 BTC), leading to a continuous tightening of the available circulating supply in the secondary market.

At the current monthly average level, if the capital inflow remains steady, the ETF's cumulative holdings will increase by about 70,000 BTC by the end of the year. For example, if the capital inflow accelerates, and the monthly increase doubles to about 34,000 Bitcoins, the ETF's reserves could surpass 1.6 million BTC.

Such scenarios will deepen the impact on tradable supply, potentially increasing the sensitivity of prices to macroeconomic dynamics and the fund-specific investor capital flows.

Open interest is concentrated in a few funds, which has also impacted the market structure. Since most shareholders cannot directly redeem underlying Bitcoin with ETF shares, even if ETF secondary market shares change hands, the actual liquidity of the exchange may still be limited. As the share of ETF demand in total trading volume increases, this dynamic may influence the price discovery process.

Although the net inflow has remained stable in recent months, there is no guarantee that this pace will continue. If the macro environment changes or rising prices trigger more profit-taking, the net inflow may slow down or even reverse. In addition, regulatory dynamics (such as adjustments to ETF redemption mechanisms or broad revisions of securities laws) remain variables that could influence trends.

The next four months will determine whether the Spot ETF can break through the 1.5 million BTC Holdings threshold. At the current pace, this milestone seems within reach and adds a new dimension to the interaction between institutional products and the underlying digital asset supply.