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Big things are happening in the market this week! Get ready for a major shock!
There are several major events clustered this week, and I have a feeling that the entire market, especially cryptocurrencies and US stocks, will be very volatile.
Don't be complacent, here are the key time points:
Wednesday (July 30): The Federal Reserve takes major action
The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision: The key question is whether they will stay put or hint at a future rate cut? This directly relates to whether money is expensive or cheap. Personally, I believe a pause is highly likely, but Powell's statements are more important.
Powell holds a press conference: This is the real main event! Every word this old man says will be magnified and interpreted by the market.
Thursday (July 31): The "check-up report" of the US economy
U.S. Q2 GDP: This is an important indicator of how well the U.S. economy is doing. Good data indicates a strong economy; poor data may signal trouble. This result will directly affect everyone's outlook on the economy for the second half of the year. Based on my observations, GDP exceeding expectations often provides a brief boost to risk assets, but the impact of data falling short of expectations is usually greater.
Friday (August 1): Employment data determines the outcome.
Non-Farm Payroll Report: This is the most critical employment data each month. Whether the job market is booming directly determines whether the Federal Reserve dares to lower interest rates and how quickly it dares to do so. This report often acts as a direct catalyst for significant market fluctuations. I remember clearly that there were several occasions last year when the non-farm data unexpectedly exceeded expectations, directly causing gold and Bitcoin to drop several points.
How to operate this week? Here are my hardcore suggestions:
Stay focused on the news and don't get distracted: around these few time points, market sentiment can change rapidly. When the news alert sounds, it could be a signal for a price surge.
Watch the linkage reaction: Focus on how several key indicators move:
Dollar Index: A stronger dollar typically suppresses risk assets.
Gold: A traditional safe-haven asset that sometimes has a correlation with Bitcoin.
S&P 500 Index: The sentiment of the U.S. stock market directly affects the risk appetite for cryptocurrencies.
Distinguishing between real and false breakouts: When data is just released, prices often fluctuate wildly, so don't rush to chase.