Bitcoin is consolidating power ahead of a crucial week! The Fed's decision, tech stock earnings reports, and the tariff deadline are coming as a triple test.

Bitcoin (BTC) continued to trade sideways last week in the range of $116,000-$119,000, while altcoins generally fell back, as the market awaits the arrival of three key catalysts: July 30th Fed interest rate decision, Q2 earnings reports from tech giants like Microsoft/Amazon, and August 1st deadline for Trump's tariff policy. Although the US and Europe have reached a 15% tariff agreement to ease some tensions, the threat of tariffs on countries like Canada remains, compounded by inflation rising to 2.7%, which has sharply increased market volatility risk. This article will analyze how these three events will impact the trends of Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and altcoins, and track ETF fund flows and institutional holdings movements.

[Fed Policy and Inflation Struggle: Rate Cut Expectations Become Key Variable]

Interest Rate Decision Outlook:

• The FOMC meeting on July 30 is almost certain to keep the interest rate unchanged (probability 97.4%), but the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 68%. If the Fed releases a dovish signal, it could boost risk assets like Bitcoin; conversely, a hawkish stance may trigger short-term selling pressure.
• Inflation Concerns: The July CPI rose to 2.7%, and Trump's tariffs on EU and Chinese goods may further increase import costs, intensifying inflationary pressures. The Fed is worried that this move could undermine a soft landing for the economy and may delay the interest rate cut process.

Intense Economic Data Release: Key focuses this week include: Tuesday's Consumer Confidence Index, Wednesday's GDP Growth Rate, Thursday's PCE Inflation (the Fed's most important indicator), and Friday's Non-Farm Employment. If the data indicates a cooling U.S. economy, it may strengthen expectations for a rate cut in September, which would be favorable for cryptocurrencies; strong data could suppress risk appetite.

📉 Historical Correlation: In June, as the Fed's rate cut expectations warmed, Bitcoin rebounded by $64,000 in a single day, and the weekly net inflow of spot ETFs reached $252 million. If easing signals are released this time, it may lead to a repeat of capital inflow.

[Technology Giants Earnings Week: Risk Sentiment Barometer]

"Tech Giants Report Cards": Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and others account for 30% of the S&P 500 index weight, and their earnings reports will dominate the sentiment of the US stock market and even the crypto market:

• Optimistic Scenario: If AI investment and cloud business growth exceed expectations, it may drive the S&P 500 to new highs, leading Bitcoin to break through the resistance level of $120,000 (historical data shows that BTC has a correlation of 0.8 with the S&P 500).
• Pessimistic Scenario: Weak performance may trigger a correction in US stocks, with funds possibly temporarily leaving high-risk assets (such as alts) and turning to stablecoins for safety. Data from the XBIT platform shows that recent trading volume of stablecoins has surged by 34% month-on-month, with on-chain exchange amounts exceeding $63.2 million.

Enterprise Holdings Dynamics: Japanese listed company MetaPlanet and American company Strategy continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings. If companies with ample cash flow after their financial reports announce additional purchases, it could serve as a short-term price catalyst.

[ETF Capital Flow and Institutional Holdings Dynamics]

Bitcoin ETF Demand Slows: Last week, the net inflow of spot BTC ETF was only $72 million, the lowest since June. BlackRock (IBIT) accounted for $83 million of the inflow, while Grayscale (GBTC) saw a net outflow of $35 million. This indicates that some funds took profits ahead of key events.

Ethereum ETF Strong Rise: ETH spot ETF attracted $5.1 billion this week, with strong institutional layout intentions. CME Ethereum futures open interest simultaneously hit a historic high of $7.85 billion, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the derivatives market.

💡 On-chain Signals: Bitcoin's hash rate has risen to 932 EH/s (historical peak), with network difficulty reaching 127.62T, reflecting miners' long-term confidence and providing underlying support for the price.

【Global Tariff Negotiations Final Countdown: Risk Aversion Logic Under Test】

Fed and EU Protocol Mitigate Tail Risks: On July 28, the US and Europe reached a 15% reciprocal tariff agreement, with the EU committing to purchase $750 billion worth of American energy and military equipment. This agreement eliminates the threat of a "30% punitive tariff," which Fundstrat views as a key macro risk being alleviated, favorable for risk assets.

Remaining tariff bomb fuse not removed:

• Starting from August 1, the United States plans to impose new tariffs on Canada (35%), Mexico (30%), Brazil (50%), etc. If negotiations break down, it may trigger an escalation of global trade friction.
• Historical Lessons: In February, when Trump imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, the total market value of cryptocurrencies evaporated by 50 billion dollars in a single day, with liquidation amounts exceeding 8 billion dollars.

Controversy over Bitcoin's Hedging Properties:

• Gold surged to a historical high of $2,950 during the trade war, while Bitcoin declined in the same period. Paybis analysts pointed out: "BTC has yet to become a reliable safe-haven asset and still belongs to a high-risk category", and institutional surveys show that only 3% of fund managers view it as a store of value (compared to 58% for gold).
• In the medium to long term, if the Fed lowers interest rates due to the trade war, Bitcoin may still benefit from liquidity easing. Bitwise's research director emphasized: "BTC is the next generation reserve asset candidate to hedge against fiat currency depreciation".

Conclusion: Three Catalysts May Reshape the Market Landscape

This week's three major events will verify the positioning of cryptocurrencies in the macro landscape: if the Fed adopts a dovish stance, tech stocks show stable earnings, and tariff conflicts are manageable, Bitcoin is expected to break through the $120,000 mark, driving a rebound in alts; conversely, any "black swan" could trigger a short-term correction. Investors should pay attention to:

1. Fed's Statement on Inflation and Tariffs (September Rate Cut Path);
2. Microsoft/Amazon Earnings Report Guidance (Transmission of Risk Appetite in Tech Stocks);
3. Results of tariff negotiations with countries such as Canada (before August 1).

⚠️ Technical indicators: If BTC holds above $119,000, the next target is the historical high of $123,091; a drop below $116,000 could trigger a new wave of altcoin sell-off.

(This analysis is based on publicly available market data and does not constitute investment advice. The fluctuations of crypto assets are severe; readers are advised to independently assess the risks.)