2024 U.S. Election: Trump's Approval Rating Surpasses Harris, Cryptocurrency Industry May Be a Key Factor

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, data from market prediction platforms shows that Trump's approval rating is gradually rising, with the latest forecast indicating he has garnered 53% support, while his main competitor Harris remains at 46%. This change in data has sparked widespread attention, especially in financial markets and the encryption community. The rise in Trump's support not only reflects his advantages in economic policy, voter mobilization, and party cohesion but also highlights the challenges and dilemmas Harris faces during the campaign.

This article will analyze the key factors leading to the increase in Trump's approval ratings from multiple angles, including the Democratic Party's economic policies, the attitude shift of centrist voters, the influence of political figures in key states, and the widespread support of the encryption industry for Trump, to help readers gain a more comprehensive understanding of this complex electoral dynamic.

1. Harris's Economic Policy Sparks Controversy

The economic policy proposed by Harris is one of the core elements of her campaign. However, this economic policy has sparked widespread controversy in American society, especially among moderate voters.

1. Controversy over Price Control Policies

Among Harris's economic policies, the most controversial is her proposed price control measures. These measures aim to restrict companies' pricing power on essentials through legislative means to prevent price gouging. However, despite the theoretical benefits of this policy in controlling inflation and protecting consumer interests, economists and policy experts generally question its feasibility in practice.

Many experts believe that price control may lead to market distortions, resulting in supply chain issues and product shortages. Media reports indicate that Harris's price control policy could disrupt the supply-demand balance in the market and even lead to black markets and hoarding phenomena. This concern is not unfounded; historically, many price control measures have failed due to poor market reactions. Therefore, while Harris's policy may attract some voters hoping to reduce living costs in the short term, it could lead to economic instability in the long run. This has impacted her support among centrist voters, especially among those who are highly concerned about economic stability and market freedom.

2. Challenges of Housing Policy

Harris's housing policy has also played a complex role in the election campaign. She proposed a plan to address the housing shortage by building a large number of affordable homes for the middle class. This policy seems reasonable on paper, especially in the face of America's increasingly severe housing crisis, as increasing housing supply is undoubtedly a direct and effective solution.

However, the problem lies in the extremely high execution costs of this policy, and its economic feasibility and actual effectiveness have been widely questioned. For example, Harris promised to build 3 million affordable housing units during her first term, but the sources of funding and details of policy implementation have not been clearly stated. Moreover, she has also proposed a commitment not to increase the tax burden on families earning less than $400,000 a year, which means the funding for the entire project may rely on large-scale government deficits or increased taxes on the wealthy, which will undoubtedly further intensify criticism from both within and outside the Democratic Party.

This uncertainty not only makes centrist voters feel uneasy, but also raises doubts about Harris's credibility in policy execution. Price controls on housing and subsidies for homebuyers seem to be direct benefits for low- to middle-income voters, but in reality, they may inadvertently trigger further increases in market prices, exacerbating the supply-demand conflict. Therefore, although the proposal of housing policies shows Harris's concern for social issues, the inadequacies in policy design and the difficulties in execution have had a counterproductive effect on her electoral prospects.

3. Attraction and Limitations for the Middle Class

Harris's economic policy centers on improving the quality of life for the middle class, with a particular emphasis on enhancing economic security for the middle class through increased child tax credits and controlling healthcare costs. These measures theoretically help alleviate the economic pressures faced by the American middle class, especially against the backdrop of rising childcare costs and healthcare expenses.

However, as some critics have pointed out, while these policies are welcomed by some voters, the issues of their long-term sustainability and funding sources remain unresolved difficulties. The votes of the middle class are crucial for any candidate, but if the implementation of the policies is inadequate, these votes may shift to opponents. Although Harris's policy design has an idealistic color, the potential problems during the execution process, such as the possibility of increasing the government's fiscal deficit, weaken the actual appeal of these policies to the middle class.

In addition, Harris attempted to combine economic policies with social justice issues, such as achieving broader social equity through anti-discrimination legislation and reducing the economic burden on impoverished communities. However, this approach has raised concerns among conservatives and some moderates, who believe that these policies may further expand government power and increase social and economic uncertainty while winning support from progressives.

4. Overall Impact on the Election Situation

Overall, Harris's economic policies, while demonstrating some concern for the middle class and low-income groups, have failed to effectively increase her support among centrist and economically liberal voters due to the radical nature of the policy design and lack of execution details. In contrast, these voters may be more inclined to support Trump, who has clearer positions and more pragmatic policies.

The controversial nature of these policies not only puts Harris at a disadvantage in the election but also provides Trump with a pretext for attacks. Trump can capitalize on the uncertainty surrounding these policies to emphasize his experience in economic management and support for market freedom, thereby attracting voters who are more concerned about economic stability and growth. Therefore, the impact of the Democratic economic policies in this election is dual: on one hand, it strengthens Harris's support among progressives, while on the other hand, it creates more uncertainty among key moderate voters, thus providing conditions for Trump's rising approval ratings.

2. The Attitudes of Moderate Voters are Wavering

Centrist voters often play a key role in U.S. elections. Their positions usually do not lean towards either side, focusing more on the candidates' actual policies and their impacts on the economy and society. Against the backdrop of controversies surrounding Harris's economic policies, the support for her among centrist voters has begun to decline. In contrast, although Trump's economic policies are also controversial, his clear stance on tax cuts and economic stimulus aligns more closely with centrist voters' expectations for economic development.

In addition, Trump's support for free markets and the economic measures he implemented during his presidency, such as tax cuts and deregulation, have gained recognition from some centrist voters. In contrast, Harris's economic policies are considered too radical, particularly in areas like price controls and housing subsidies, making it difficult for her to increase her support among centrists.

3. The Influence of Key Political Figures in Swing States

The absence of the Pennsylvania governor from the Democratic meeting has negatively impacted Harris's campaign. As a key swing state, the attitudes of Pennsylvania voters are crucial to the national election results. The governor's absence may be interpreted as dissatisfaction within the party regarding Harris's economic policies or campaign strategy, and this discontent could further undermine Harris's support in the state.

In this situation, voters may have doubts about Harris's campaign ability and party cohesion, leading them to support the more certain Trump. The governor's absence not only affects Harris's campaign in Pennsylvania but also indirectly impacts her performance in other swing states. For Harris, ensuring unity within the party and support from key states is crucial to her campaign's success, but this event undoubtedly increases her challenges in that regard.

4. Trump's Interaction with the Encryption Industry

Trump's support for the cryptocurrency industry is another important factor in his rising election rate. Although Trump had a negative attitude towards cryptocurrencies in the early days, he gradually changed his stance as the market developed and began to actively support the encryption industry.

In the 2024 election, Trump became one of the first major candidates to publicly accept cryptocurrency donations. His campaign team announced that they would accept donations in various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. This initiative not only demonstrated his open attitude towards encryption but also established a closer connection with the crypto community.

The decision to accept cryptocurrency donations is a strategic step that not only expands Trump's voter base but also attracts young voters and tech enthusiasts who are skeptical of the traditional financial system. These voters often have a strong sense of identification with decentralization, free markets, and financial innovation, and by accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump sends them a clear signal: he supports this emerging field and is willing to advocate for it politically.

In addition to accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump has made a series of policy commitments that further solidify his position within the encryption community. One of the most notable commitments is the pardon of the Silk Road founder. The Silk Road was one of the earliest and most famous cryptocurrency trading platforms, and this case holds great symbolic significance within the encryption community. Trump's commitment has not only won him the favor of a large number of cryptocurrency supporters but also conveyed to the outside world his tolerant attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry.

In addition, Trump also stated that if he is elected again, he will promote the inclusion of Bitcoin into the strategic reserves of the United States and consider using Bitcoin to address some national debt issues. Although these proposals have sparked widespread controversy in mainstream financial circles, they have received a warm response within the encryption community. Cryptocurrency supporters believe that these initiatives will greatly enhance the legitimacy and global status of cryptocurrencies, bringing greater development opportunities to the industry.

This supportive attitude has gained wide recognition in the encryption community. Compared to Harris, Trump's stance in the cryptocurrency field is more clear and proactive, earning him a large number of supporters in this emerging market. Practitioners and investors in the cryptocurrency industry are very sensitive to market prospects and are more willing to support a candidate who holds an open attitude towards the encryption industry. Trump's position has clearly won him the support of this segment of voters and boosted his approval ratings.

5. Election Expenditures of Encryption Companies

According to reports, nearly half of the corporate political donations in the 2024 election cycle come from encryption companies. These companies influence election outcomes by supporting candidates that align with their interests. The encryption industry's support for Trump is reflected not only in rhetoric but also through financial assistance that has concretely impacted the election.

This level of corporate support further solidifies Trump's position within the encryption community and related industries. As more encryption companies and individual investors funnel funds into supporting Trump's political action committee, his financial and promotional advantages in the election are strengthened, which also directly drives up his odds in the prediction markets.

Conclusion

In summary, the rise in Trump's election rate is the result of multiple factors working together. Harris's economic policies have sparked controversy, particularly among centrist voters, making it difficult for her to increase her support. The absence of key political figures in battleground states has heightened concerns about party division, further weakening Harris's support in these critical areas. Meanwhile, Trump's supportive stance towards the encryption industry has earned him widespread recognition in this emerging market. Additionally, the hefty political donations from encryption companies have provided strong support for Trump's election campaign.

In the coming months, Trump and Harris will face enormous challenges.