Mysterious Whale Wins Huge Profits in the Prediction Market, Successfully Betting on Election Results

A mysterious trader has performed outstandingly in bets related to the presidential election, expected to make nearly $50 million in profit. This trader, known as the "Trump Whale," not only bet that Trump would win the presidential election but also boldly predicted that he would win the popular vote, a result that many political observers previously deemed unlikely.

The trader who calls himself "Théo" is also betting that Trump will win several key swing states. He is placing bets on a certain cryptocurrency prediction market using four anonymous accounts. Although he refuses to reveal his true identity, he has been in contact with a certain media reporter since mid-October.

Théo stated that his bet is essentially a judgment on the accuracy of polling data. He describes himself as a wealthy Frenchman who has worked as a trader at several banks. Since this summer, he has been using his mathematical knowledge to analyze American polls, believing that the polls have exaggerated the support for a certain candidate. Unlike many armchair political commentators, he has actually invested over $30 million betting on Trump's victory.

As the election results are gradually announced, Théo's predictions begin to come true. He wakes up in the middle of the night in France to check the results, feeling confident about his bets. Trump's strong performance in Florida indicates a high possibility of him winning the popular vote.

On the eve of the election, Théo predicted that Trump would receive 49% or 50% of the votes nationwide and win six out of seven battleground states. As of Wednesday afternoon after the election, analysts predicted that Trump would win the popular vote, obtaining nearly 72 million votes, while his opponent would receive 67.1 million votes, although there were still large numbers of ballots uncounted in some states.

Théo stated that he bet on Trump with his own money, aiming to make a profit without any political motives. He has repeatedly criticized American polls, believing that mainstream media polls often lean towards one side. He pointed out that French polls have higher credibility and are closer to the actual situation.

Théo analyzed historical polling data and inferred that if Trump could replicate his performance in swing states from 2020, he would easily take the lead. He believes that polls fail to accurately reflect the true inclinations of all voters, as some voters may be reluctant to openly express their support.

To address this issue, Théo suggested using the "neighboring resident survey" method, which involves asking respondents which candidate they expect their neighbors to support. He believes this method can indirectly reflect people's true tendencies. Théo cited several polling results that used this method, showing that the support rates for certain candidates were several percentage points lower than those obtained through traditional methods.

Théo also revealed that he commissioned a large polling agency to conduct a survey to measure this effect, but he refused to disclose specific details. He believes that if American polling agencies adopt this method in the future, it will be able to avoid significant prediction errors again.