Market Observation Weekly Report [6.9 - 6.13]: Geopolitical disturbances and cautious capital resonate, Mainstream Token fluctuates and adjusts, market consolidates at high levels.

The slowdown in capital inflow has led to market fluctuations, Mainstream Tokens are adjusting and consolidating, while small coins are retreating

Macroeconomic situation triggers market fluctuations:

• The conflict between Israel and Iran has triggered a brief risk-off sentiment, market volatility has decreased, expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have warmed, and investor sentiment has become more cautious.

The momentum of capital inflow is weakening:

• ETF net inflow of $1.02 billion but momentum slows, stablecoin issuance decelerates, USDT premium decreases, indicating a weak willingness for fund entry.

Mainstream Token performance differentiation:

• Bitcoin's upward attack was hindered and fell back, while Ethereum's rebound showed weakening momentum. Institutions continue to increase their holdings, and the overall structure remains neutral to strong.

The liquidity of small coins has improved, but the rise is hindered:

• The TOTAL2 index has rebounded and then corrected, with the market capitalization share of small coins stabilizing after a decline, while on-chain activity remains weak.
• Currently in the final stages of organization, waiting for a breakthrough in funding in the short term, paying attention to the strengthening of small coin structures and signs of funding returning to Mainstream Token.

1. Macro Environment Analysis

• Geopolitical Situation: The conflict between Israel and Iran is limited to missile and drone attacks, with a low risk of full-scale war expected to last for several weeks. The United States is providing support but has not directly intervened.
• Market Reaction: Oil prices rose due to sentiment, Bitcoin returned to $105,000, U.S. stocks rebounded, and market volatility decreased.
• Monetary Policy: The probability of a rate cut in July increases as the Federal Reserve weighs inflation and economic growth, with geopolitical conflicts possibly involving US-Israel relations.

2. Fund Flow and Mainstream Token Analysis

External Fund Inflow

• ETF funds: This week inflows reached $2.8 billion, with a significant increase in inflow volume.
• Stablecoin: This week, an additional issuance of $2.3 billion, with an average daily issuance of $321 million, is at a relatively high level.

Market Sentiment Indicator

• OTC Premium: Stablecoin premium continues to rise

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Technical Aspect: In an oscillating upward channel
• On-chain data: Increase in chips over $103,000

Ethereum (ETH)

• Performance is weaker than BTC, ETH/BTC price fluctuates, and funds continue to flow into BTC.
• On-chain activity: An increase in active addresses may indicate the formation of a temporary bottom.

Macroeconomic Review

Geopolitical Conflict Focus

• Geographical Background:

Iran's mountainous terrain and population advantages make it difficult for Israel to launch a ground offensive unless the United States intervenes directly. The conflict may be limited to targeted strikes.

• Scale and Duration of Conflict:

Israel declared that it will continue fighting for two weeks, expecting a long-term low-intensity confrontation. Jordan has restricted direct contact as a buffer zone.

• Impact Assessment:

Under the current situation, concerns about a full-scale war are relatively low, and geopolitical risks mainly manifest as emotional fluctuations rather than military escalation.

• Oil Price Trend:

The rise in oil prices is due to emotional reactions, not supply disruptions. The attacks did not target oil facilities and have no direct impact on global oil supply in the short term.

• Stock Market and Cryptocurrency:

The US stock market has stabilized and rebounded, with Bitcoin rising to $105,000, indicating an improvement in market sentiment. Volatility has receded from the morning's highs and fluctuated within the $1,000 range in the afternoon.

• Volatility Change:

Compared to the beginning of the year, the current market's reaction to geopolitical events has weakened, and the volatility has decreased.

• Institutional Holdings Impact:

Institutional holdings have increased, circulation has decreased, and the market is trending towards the US stock model. The ETF lock-up effect is significant, with most funds locked in for the long term.

• Market Rhythm：

The trend of Bitcoin is increasingly linked to the US stock market, with institutional decision-making cycles being long and market stability improving. However, it is still driven by emotions in the short term.

• Comparison with other cryptocurrencies:

Ethereum and Solana still maintain high volatility characteristics due to the lack of large ETFs and deep institutional participation.

Neutral Interest Rate Expectation

The probability distribution of interest rate cuts for meetings from October 2025 to December 2026 is gradually changing. The end-of-2025 meeting shows an increased probability of a 50 basis point cut to a range of 375-400 basis points, with a 28.6% probability of a 225-250 basis point cut at the December meeting. The 2026 meetings indicate that the magnitude of cuts may stabilize, with a more dispersed probability distribution.

2. On-chain Data Analysis

1. Recent short-term data changes affecting the market

1.1 Stablecoin Capital Flow

This week, the issuance of stablecoins reached 1.149 billion, an increase of 14% month-on-month, with an average daily issuance of 164 million, also up 14% month-on-month. Although the issuance volume has increased compared to last week, the growth rate has slowed down, which is related to the price trend of BTC. The total amount of stablecoins continues to grow, but the issuance pace is volatile, and it is recommended to remain cautiously optimistic.

1.2 ETF Fund Flow

This week, Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $1.02 billion, an increase of $1.718 billion compared to the previous week, reflecting a short-term rise in institutional investment sentiment. In the first two days of the week, inflows accelerated, and the BTC price rebounded to a weekly high, followed by a slowdown in inflow speed and a price correction. The ETH ETF experienced a significant continuous inflow this week, which may indicate medium to long-term favorable factors.

1.3 Off-market Premium and Discount

The OTC premium rates of USDT and USDC rose and then fell this week, reflecting a flow of funds that first returned and then withdrew. The USDC premium rate rose again to 100% on Thursday, while USDT continued to drop to 99.65%. The overall premium rate still shows a downward trend, indicating that the market remains generally conservative and cautious.

1.4 Institutional Buying

MicroStrategy has slowed its buying pace when BTC prices are above 100,000, but it slightly increases its buying volume during price pullbacks, indicating caution above 100,000 but a willingness to increase holdings during corrections.

1.5 Long-term and Short-term Holders' Positions

The supply of long-term holders continues to reach new highs, reaching 14.4 million BTC. The supply of short-term holders has decreased again this week, possibly due to selling pressure driving the pullback. Long-term holders are still increasing their holdings, and the pullback may present a buying opportunity.

2. Changes in Mid-term Market Data

2.1 Coin Holding Address Distribution and URPD

The proportion of holdings for addresses greater than 1K and less than 10K has decreased, while addresses greater than 100 and less than 1K, as well as those greater than 10K and less than 100K, continue to increase their holdings. URPD shows that the chips are still concentrated in the range of 103000-106000.

In summary of this week's market, the technical aspect is at a critical position. If the funding situation reverses at the beginning of next week, a rebound may occur followed by continued high-level fluctuations. If the funding situation continues to decline, BTC may break through key support, forming a double top, which would be unfavorable for the future market.