Crypto Market Q3 Macro Research Report: Selective Bull Run Has Started, Institutions Adopt to Drive Structural Market

1. The macro environment is warming, and institutional driving forces are emerging.

At the beginning of the third quarter of 2025, the macro environment has undergone fundamental changes. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve ending its interest rate hike cycle, fiscal policy returning to a stimulus track, and the accelerated construction of a 'conducive framework' for global encryption regulation, the crypto market is on the eve of a structural reassessment.

In terms of monetary policy, the market has reached a consensus on interest rate cuts within 2025, and the expected divergence opens an upward channel for risk assets. Fiscal policy is also making synchronized efforts, with expansionary measures represented by the "Great American Law" releasing unprecedented capital effects. More importantly, regulatory thinking is shifting from "firewall" to "pipeline engineering," and the SEC's attitude towards the crypto market has undergone a qualitative change. The approval of the ETH staking ETF marks the entry of yield-bearing digital assets into the traditional financial system.

The compliance race in the Asia region is also heating up. Financial hubs like Hong Kong and Singapore are vying for the compliance dividends of stablecoins, payment licenses, and Web3 innovation projects. This means that stablecoins are no longer just trading tools, but will become part of payment networks, enterprise settlements, and even national financial strategies.

The risk appetite in the traditional financial market is also showing signs of recovery. Tech stocks are rebounding in sync with emerging assets, the IPO market is warming up, and the increase in user activity on platforms like Robinhood all signal the return of risk capital.

Under the dual drive of policies and the market, the brewing of a new bull run is not driven by emotions, but rather a process of value reassessment under institutional drives. The spring of the crypto market is returning in a milder yet more powerful way.

2. Structural Turnover: Institutions and Entrepreneurs Lead the New Bull Run

The current crypto market is most noteworthy for the deep logic of chips shifting from retail investors to long-term holders, corporate treasuries, and financial institutions. After two years of clearing and restructuring, the structure of participants in the crypto market is undergoing a historic "shuffle": speculative users are being marginalized, while institutional and corporate allocations are becoming the decisive force driving the next bull run.

The circulating chips of Bitcoin are accelerating the "lock-up" process. The cumulative amount of Bitcoin purchased by listed companies has exceeded the net buying scale of ETFs. Enterprises view Bitcoin as a "strategic cash substitute," and its holding resilience is stronger than that of ETFs.

Financial infrastructure is also clearing obstacles for institutional capital inflow. The ETH staking ETF means that institutions are beginning to incorporate "on-chain yield assets" into traditional portfolios. The approval of the Solana ETF is expected to further open up the imagination space. Grayscale's crypto fund application to convert to ETF form signifies that the "barriers" between traditional fund management and blockchain asset management are being broken down.

Companies are also directly participating in the on-chain financial market. Bitmine has increased its holdings in ETH, and DeFi Development is investing in the Solana ecosystem, which represents that companies are actively participating in constructing a new generation of encryption financial ecosystems. The market effects brought about by this behavior are long-tail, which not only stabilizes market sentiment but also enhances the valuation anchoring ability of underlying protocols.

In the field of derivatives and on-chain liquidity, the trading volume of Solana futures and XRP futures on CME has reached new highs, indicating that traditional institutions have incorporated crypto assets into their strategy models. The entry of hedge funds and CTA capital will fundamentally enhance "liquidity density" and "market depth."

From the perspective of structural turnover, the decline in retail investor activity has precisely reinforced the aforementioned trend. On-chain data shows that the proportion of short-term holders continues to decrease, and the activity of early whale wallets has diminished, indicating that the market is in a "turnover sedimentation period." The chips are no longer in the hands of retail investors; institutions are quietly "building a bottom position."

The "productization capability" of financial institutions is also rapidly being realized. From large banks to emerging retail financial platforms, there is an expansion of the trading, staking, lending, and payment capabilities of crypto assets. In the future, BTC and ETH may become "configurable asset classes" with a complete financial ecosystem.

This round of structural turnover is essentially a deep unfolding of the "financial commodification" of crypto assets, reshaping the logic of value discovery. The dominant players in the market are no longer the emotion-driven "quick money crowd," but institutions and enterprises with clear long-term strategies and allocation logic. An institutionalized and structured bull run is brewing, which will be more solid, more lasting, and more thorough.

3. New Shanzhai Season: Moving Towards a "Selective Bull Run"

The "altcoin season" of 2025 has entered a new phase: the broad bullish market is no more, replaced by a "selective bull run" driven by narratives such as ETFs, real yields, and institutional adoption. This is a manifestation of the crypto market's maturation and an inevitable outcome of the capital selection mechanism following the market's return to rationality.

From the perspective of structural signals, mainstream altcoin assets have completed a new round of consolidation. The ETH/BTC pair shows signs of rebound, with whale addresses accumulating a large amount and frequent on-chain large transactions, indicating that main funds have begun to reprice primary assets. Retail investor sentiment remains low, creating a "low interference" environment for the next round of market activity, making it easier for institutional rhythms to dominate the market.

But this time the altcoin market will be "each flying on its own." ETF applications have become a new round of thematic structural anchor points. In particular, the Solana spot ETF is seen as the next "market consensus event." Asset performance will revolve around "ETF potential, real yield distribution capability, institutional allocation" and will no longer be a situation of widespread increase.

DeFi has also entered a new stage. Users are shifting from "points airdrop type" to "cash flow type", with protocol income, stablecoin yields, and re-staking mechanisms becoming core indicators. Liquidity providers place greater importance on strategy transparency, yield sustainability, and risk structure. This has led to the emergence of new projects like Renzo and Size Credit.

Capital choices are becoming more "realistic". Stablecoin strategies backed by RWA are favored by institutions, and cross-chain liquidity integration and user experience unification are becoming key factors determining the direction of funds. Middleware projects like Enso and Wormhole are emerging as new hubs for capital concentration.

The speculative part is also shifting. While meme coins still have popularity, the era of "everyone pulling up" is over. The strategy of "platform rotation trading" is on the rise, but it carries high risks and lacks sustainability. Capital is more inclined to allocate to projects that can provide continuous returns, have real users, and strong narrative support.

In summary, the core of this round of altcoin season lies in "which assets have the potential to be integrated into traditional financial logic." From changes in ETF structures, re-staking yield models, to simplified cross-chain UX, and the integration of RWA with institutional credit infrastructure, the crypto market is ushering in a deep value reassessment cycle. A selective bull run is not a weakening of the bull market, but an upgrade. The future will belong to those who understand the narrative logic, comprehend financial structures, and quietly accumulate positions in a "quiet market."

4. Q3 Investment Framework: Emphasizing Core Allocation and Event-Driven Strategies

The investment strategy for Q3 2025 must find a balance between "core allocation stability" and "event-driven local bursts." From the long-term allocation of Bitcoin to thematic trading of Solana ETFs, and then to the rotation strategy of DeFi real yield protocols and RWA vaults, a layered and adaptive asset allocation framework has become a necessary prerequisite.

Bitcoin remains the preferred core position. In an environment where ETF inflows show no reversal, corporate treasuries continue to increase their holdings, and the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance, BTC demonstrates strong resilience against declines and a capital siphoning effect. Standard Chartered has raised its year-end price cap to $200,000, and corporate buying is becoming the largest variable in the market.

Solana is undoubtedly the most thematic explosive asset in Q3. Leading institutions have submitted applications for SOL spot ETFs, with the approval window expected to close around September. The staking mechanism is likely to be incorporated into the ETF structure, and its "quasi-dividend asset" attribute is attracting funds for pre-positioning. This narrative will drive SOL spot and governance tokens of staking ecosystems such as JTO, MNDE, etc.

DeFi portfolios are worth restructuring. Current focus should be on protocols with stable cash flow, real yield distribution capabilities, and mature governance mechanisms. Configurable projects include SYRUP, LQTY, EUL, FLUID, etc., using equal weight configuration to capture the relative returns of individual projects. A mid-line allocation mindset should be adopted to avoid chasing highs and cutting losses.

Meme assets should strictly control the exposure ratio, limiting it to within 5% of the total net asset value, and position management should be conducted with an options mindset. A clear stop-loss mechanism, profit-taking rules, and position limits should be established. For investors who are accustomed to event-driven trading, these types of assets can serve as emotional averaging tools, but they should not be misjudged as the core of a trend.

In addition to the configuration strategy, another key point for Q3 is the timing of event-driven layout. Trump's support for encryption mining and criticism of the Federal Reserve Chairman have accelerated expectations for policy games. The passage of the "Big America Act", Robinhood L2's entry into Arbitrum Orbit, and Circle's application for a US license all indicate that the regulatory environment is changing rapidly. It is expected that from mid-August to early September, there will be a "policy + capital resonance" market.

In addition, attention should be paid to the volume momentum of structural alternative themes. For example, Robinhood's construction of L2 and promotion of tokenized stock trading may ignite a new narrative of "exchange chains" and the integration of RWA; projects like $H (Humanity Protocol) and $SAHARA (AI+DePIN fusion) may become the "hot spots" in the fringe sector supported by verifiable roadmaps and active communities.

Overall, the investment strategy for Q3 2025 must abandon the "flooding" betting mentality and shift towards a hybrid strategy of "anchoring on the core and using events as wings." Bitcoin is the anchor, SOL is the flag, DeFi is the structure, Meme is the supplement, and events are the accelerators—each part corresponds to different position weights and trading rhythms. In the new environment of continuously expanding ETF capital bases, the market is reshaping a new valuation system of "mainstream assets + thematic narratives + real returns."

V. Conclusion: The Quiet Transfer of Wealth

Each round of bull and bear cycles is essentially a periodic reshuffling of value reassessment, and the real wealth transfer often occurs quietly amidst chaos. Although the current market does not superficially return to "mass hysteria," a selective bull run led by institutions, driven by compliance, and supported by real returns is brewing.

The role of Bitcoin has undergone a fundamental change, becoming a new reserve component in the balance sheets of global enterprises and a national-level inflation hedge tool. The inflow of ETFs has altered the previous "miners-exchanges-retail investors" chip structure, creating a reservoir of underlying capital. In the future, the factors that will have the greatest impact on Bitcoin prices will be institutional buying records, pension allocation decisions, and the repricing of risk asset valuation systems based on macro policy expectations.

The infrastructure and assets representing the next generation of financial paradigms are also completing the evolution from "narrative bubble" to "system takeover." Solana, EigenLayer, L2 Rollup, RWA vaults, and re-staked bonds representing crypto assets are transforming from "anarchic capital experiments" into "predictable institutional assets," leading the direction of the next wave of capital tides. This is not a continuation of the get-rich-quick game, but a pricing revolution that transcends asset boundaries.

The altcoin season has changed. The "comprehensive bull run" of 2021 will not be repeated. The next round of market trends will be more deeply tied to three key anchors: real yields, user growth, and institutional access. Protocols that can provide stable yield expectations for institutions, assets that attract stable funds through ETF channels, and DeFi projects with RWA mapping capabilities will become the "blue-chip stocks" in the new cycle. This is the elitization of "altcoins", a selective bull run that eliminates 99% of pseudo-assets.

To ordinary investors, the market still appears stagnant, but this is precisely the golden period when large funds quietly complete their positions. When the market begins to ask "Where is the next breakout point?" you need to ask: "Am I standing on the right structure?" It is the reconstruction of position structure, rather than the randomness of speculative gaming, that determines whether one can profit from the main upward trend.

The third quarter of 2025 will be a prelude to this wealth migration. The next bull run will not wait for anyone.