Bitcoin Breaks $110,000 and Sets New High: Is It Still Time to Get on Board?

The price of Bitcoin recently broke through the $110,000 mark, setting a new historical high and sparking market discussions. For those who missed earlier investment opportunities, is it already too late? Let us analyze this issue from the perspectives of history, value, and opportunity.

1. The Historical Cycle of Bitcoin

Looking back at the development of Bitcoin, we can see that it has experienced several significant fluctuations:

• 2011: Plummeted 94% from $33 to $2
• From 2013 to 2015: dropped 86% from $1160 to $150
• From nearly $20,000 in 2017-2018, it dropped 83% to $3,200.
• 2021-2022: Fell 77% from $69,000 to $15,500

After each crash, Bitcoin has achieved an amazing rebound. This cyclical fluctuation is due to three mechanisms:

1. Deep cycles and extreme emotions lead to price deviations.
2. Price fluctuations are severe, but the probability of going to zero is extremely low.
3. Intrinsic value exists but is often overlooked, leading to "overselling".

2. The Value Basis of Bitcoin

Although Bitcoin does not have financial indicators like traditional assets, it has an analyzable and quantifiable value system:

Supply Side:

• The total supply is fixed at 21 million coins.
• Halved every 4 years, inflation rate continues to decline
• The stock-to-flow model shows that the scarcity is continuously increasing for (S2F).

Demand Side:

• The number of active addresses and non-zero addresses continues to grow.
• The network effect expands based on Metcalfe's law
• Institutional adoption and national recognition enhance legitimacy

3. Asymmetric Investment Opportunities

Why can Bitcoin provide asymmetric investment opportunities?

• Dual-driven by supply and demand: algorithmic scarcity + network effect growth
• Market sentiment is highly volatile, often leading to mispricing.
• Long-term value logic exists, but it is often undervalued in the short term.

The essence of value investing is to seek risk-controlled and substantial returns in the gap between price and value. The drastic fluctuations of Bitcoin precisely provide such opportunities.

4. Conclusion

Bitcoin is not a simple speculation, but a tool for rethinking value, risk, and opportunity. True security is not about avoiding volatility, but about insight into the underlying value.

For whether to get on board now, the key is not perfect timing, but rather:

• Understand the long-term value logic of Bitcoin
• Buy in at a reasonable price range
• Be patient and befriend time

Remember, the world ultimately rewards those who can see order in chaos and seize opportunities in panic.