Fed's possibility of a rate drop in July decreases, Bitcoin and Ethereum key price levels attract follow.

Market Observation

The Fed's interest rate policy has become the focus of the market. Although inflation data shows signs of cooling, Fed officials generally believe that more time is needed for observation, and the possibility of a rate drop in July has decreased. Officials are inclined to consider a rate cut in the fall or later this year to ensure a clear economic outlook. This attitude stems from reliance on future data and cautious assessments of external factors.

The three major U.S. stock indices collectively rose on Thursday, with technology and bank stocks leading the gains. The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq composite index approached historical highs. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, and the dollar index declined for the fourth consecutive day, reaching its lowest level in three years. Market expectations for at least two rate cuts by the Fed within this year have strengthened.

In terms of regulation, the Hong Kong government has released a new policy declaration for the development of digital assets. The policy clearly states that a licensing system for stablecoins will be implemented by 2025, promoting the tokenization of real-world assets and providing tax incentives for tokenized ETFs and funds. Through a regulatory framework, asset transparency, and tax competitiveness, Hong Kong is striving to become a new hub for the global digital economy.

The price of Bitcoin has rebounded nearly 10% from $98,188 recently, but the upward momentum has slowed. Today marks the largest expiration date for Bitcoin and Ethereum options this year, which could exacerbate short-term volatility. Analysis shows that the price of Bitcoin is mainly driven by macro news, receiving strong support in the range of $93,000 to $100,000, but both on-chain transfer volume and spot trading volume are showing a downward trend.

Multiple analysts believe that Bitcoin needs to break through the resistance range of $108,000 to $110,000 and turn it into support in order to enter a new price discovery phase. The market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) momentum is weakening, but this may be a signal of the late stage of a bull market cycle. If MVRV momentum strengthens, combined with support from ETF fund inflows, the price of Bitcoin may break through the current high of $112,000.

For Ethereum, analysts point out that $2200 is the macro bottom, and the price needs to effectively return above $2500 to initiate a stronger rebound. The on-chain market has cooled, but recently, the Federal Housing Finance Agency in the United States has directed to accept cryptocurrency as collateral for mortgage assets, promoting the emergence of a "home-buying narrative" on-chain.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $107,432 (Year-to-date +14.64%), Daily spot trading volume $20.96 billion
• Ethereum: $2,439.40 (Year-to-date -26.91%), daily spot trading volume is $10.53 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 65 (Greed)
• Market share: BTC 65.1%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9826
• Sector fluctuations: RWA drop 2.45%; NFT sector drop 1.83%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 89,720 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 2.01 million dollars.

ETF Flows

• Bitcoin ETF: +$228 million (net inflow for 13 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: -26.4579 million USD

Hot News

• Grayscale updates Q3 Top 20 asset list: added AVAX and MORPHO while removing LDO and OP
• Galaxy and Manifold deposited 30 million USDC into HyperLiquid and started purchasing HYPE.
• A trading platform will delist 5 tokens including ALPHA and BSW on July 4.
• GameStop raises $450 million again, which may be used to purchase BTC.
• The Solana re-staking protocol Fragmetric has launched the FRAG token, with the first round of airdrop accounting for 10% of the total supply.
• zkLend announces project closure, remaining funds will be used for user compensation.

The market continues to follow whether Bitcoin can break through the $109,000 threshold and whether Ethereum can stay above $2,500, which will be an important indicator for future trends. At the same time, the Fed's interest rate policy direction will also continue to affect market sentiment.