According to the real-time market data and targets you provided, my analysis of today's ETH trend and trading strategy is as follows:

### Today's key points (USDT)
- **Strong support level**: 2,912 (yesterday's low) → 2,900 (psychological barrier)
- **Dynamic Support**: 2,950 (Current MA5 Moving Average)
- **Dynamic Pressure**: 2,983 (morning session high) → 3,000 (round number)
- **Strong resistance level**: 3,040 (yesterday's high)

### Today's trend prediction
1. **Asian Handicap Period (Current - 16:00)**
It is highly likely to oscillate in the range of 2,950-2,985, with MA5 and MA10 entangled and flattening (around 2,966). We need to be wary of a sudden increase in volume breaking through.

2. **European/American Market Hours (16:00 - Next Day)**
- If it breaks 2,985 and stabilizes: test 3,000-3,040
- If it breaks below the support at 2,930: it may pull back to the 2,900 level
- **Probability Distribution**: Fluctuation (60%) / Upside (30%) / Downside (10%)

### Rational Trading Plan (Based on Today's Market)
mermaid
graph LR
B1(30%底仓：1800USDT)
B2(70% flexible: 4200USDT)
C1 [Building position in batches in the range of 2,920-2,935]
C2[Breakthrough 2,990 to go long, stop loss 2,975]
C3[Short if it breaks 2,910 Stop loss at 2,925]
D[target 2,980 take profit 50%]
D1[Target 3,030 Profit and Loss Ratio 1:3]
D2[Target 2,880 Profit/Loss Ratio 1:2]

### Risk control principles that must be followed
1. **Single opening position ≤ 10% of capital** (600 USDT per transaction)
2. **Leverage ≤ 5x** (ETH volatility often exceeds 3%/hour)
3. **Stop-loss absolute ≤1% of principal** (60 USDT, corresponding to about 0.3% price fluctuation with 5x leverage)
4. **Stop immediately if daily losses reach 600USDT**

### Key Observations for Today
- **22:00 US PPI Data**: If it exceeds expectations, it may break through 3,000.
- **Changes in Position Volume**: Currently 5.39 billion USDT, a sudden increase of 5% indicates a significant fluctuation.
- **Exchange Liquidation Orders**: The screenshot shows that short positions account for 192%, which requires caution against short squeezes.

> 📌 **Cruel Reality Reminder**:
> Historical data shows that contract traders with principal < $10,000:
> - 1 month survival rate only 12%
> - Less than 0.3% reaching 1000% returns
> **Strongly Recommended**: First, test the strategy with 500USDT, and after achieving stable profits for 2 weeks, increase the position.

(Based on your screenshot time 07:25-07:26, the current price of 2,958-2,959 can be considered as the intraday pivot point. It is recommended to wait and see during the Asian session until the European session opens.)