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Pi Network (PI) Price Analysis: The funding rate continues to be negative, are whales quietly transferring tokens in preparation for a massive sell-off?
Today (9), in the Asian afternoon session, Pi Network (PI) slightly rose to $0.4639. Although market sentiment remains optimistic, technical indicators and on-chain data have raised alarms. The reserve levels at the exchange are high, and the concentration of short positions continues to rise, indicating that selling pressure is quietly increasing, suggesting potential weakness in the market rather than apparent strength.
Positive sentiment still exists, but the trading pattern shows otherwise
Despite the increasing dumping pressure on the price chart, the public sentiment surrounding Pi Network remains surprisingly positive. In the community, many analysts still refer to Pi as the "sleeping giant," which means that the true value of this project has yet to be fully recognized by the market.
Cryptocurrency analyst DrPicoin recently commented that Pi Network has been "forgotten by many," but that does not mean it is without value—it is simply misunderstood.
At the same time, trader @CRYPTOAD00 warned that selling PI around $0.45 may not be a good idea. According to him, if the next altcoin cycle goes as expected, Pi coin is likely to reach $5.
However, despite the prevailing optimism, the technical data paints a contrasting picture—multiple warning signals and selling pressure are quietly accumulating within the system.
Whales are active, exchange reserves surge
One of the most obvious warning signs currently is the surge in the amount of Pi coins being transferred to exchanges, with reserves of Pi coins at exchanges jumping by more than 40% in just two months. This figure clearly indicates that large holders are quietly moving their tokens to exchanges, likely in preparation for a massive dumping.
On most centralized exchanges (CEX), inflows overwhelmingly surpass outflows, creating significant dumping pressure on the price of Pi. When whales begin to accumulate coins in large amounts on the exchange, the market usually does not favor long positions.
The funding rate remains "negative", and retail investors are still betting on a price decline
The financing rate of Pi perpetual futures contracts continues to be at an extremely low negative level — this clearly indicates that short positions dominate. In this situation, shorts are forced to pay longs to maintain their position, reflecting a severe imbalance in market sentiment.
This is a typical sign of market sentiment leaning towards pessimism. Even though the price has slightly risen to the 0.48 dollar range, the cash flow of retail investors has not significantly reversed.
(PI funding rate, source: Coinglass)
Essentially, the funding rate measures the cost between two opposing parties in the derivatives market. When the index remains negative, it implicitly indicates that most traders are still betting on a bearish scenario.
If this imbalance continues, the market may experience a sudden and significant rebound, triggering a short squeeze. However, at present, short positions still firmly hold the advantage.
Elder Ray indicator tends to be bearish
The Elder Ray indicator (a tool for measuring market momentum) is currently showing a mixed trend, with both bulls and bears remaining cautious. The "bullish forces" are still below zero, clearly indicating that the bulls have not yet regained the upper hand. On the other hand, the "bear market strength" is gradually increasing, showing that the bears are quietly consolidating their position.
Although the selling pressure has not yet reached a level that triggers panic, the lack of significant buying pressure has left the market in a nearly frozen state. Neither side has been able to truly control the situation, but the balance slightly tilts towards short positions.
The Elder Ray indicator shows that the Pi coin battle remains tense, but short positions seem to have the upper hand for now.
(Pi Elder Ray indicator, source: Trading View)
Pi Coin Price Analysis: Needs to Break 0.5152 USD to Form a Clear Rise Trend
Currently, the price of Pi is hovering around $0.456, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and short positions. The key support level is at $0.4035—if breached, the selling pressure may increase sharply, further pushing down the price.
On the upside, key resistance levels are at 0.4588 USD and 0.5023 USD. If buying power is strong enough to break through these resistance levels, accompanied by explosive trading volume, the door to the 0.60 USD price level will be opened.
However, if the buying pressure is not strong enough to decisively overcome the resistance, the Pi coin may continue to be in a sideways state. In particular, if it loses the support area of $0.4035, the current rise trend will be officially negated—this situation is entirely possible if the Pi coin continues to be pushed towards the exchange, increasing the hidden dumping pressure.
A rare glimmer of hope has emerged on the technical chart, coming from the hidden bullish divergence signal in the RSI indicator. Although the price of PI continues to explore new lows around $0.408, the RSI indicator shows that subsequent lows are higher than previous lows—this signal cannot be ignored.
This is a typical divergence pattern that usually occurs when prices are falling but market momentum begins to recover. This indicates that selling pressure may be weakening, which could lead to a short-term reversal.
The RSI indicator is a tool for measuring price momentum, with a value range of 0 to 100, typically used to identify overbought or oversold signals. An increase in RSI during a price decline is a positive signal, indicating a potential rebound.
(Source: Trading View)