#非农就业数据来袭# June's US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data is like a carefully orchestrated "paper prosperity." The increase in government jobs disguises the total employment figures, yet hides the chill in the private sector and the structural rot in the labor market. As policymakers indulge in the "low magic" of unemployment rates, the surge in long-term unemployment, the collapse of small business confidence, and ADP warnings are sounding the real economic alarm. If the Federal Reserve were to abandon the rate cut in July based on a single month's data, it could commit a symmetrical error akin to last year's "inflation misjudgment." With the impact of tariffs not fully realized and economic momentum rapidly stalling, waiting for "perfect data" could lead to policies lagging behind the crisis. When the Treasury Secretary publicly questions interest rate decisions, and the gold market responds with a big dump of 1% to the expectation of rate cuts dropping to zero, the market has already indicated with real money: this government-led illusion of prosperity will ultimately be unable to withstand the cold wave of economic fundamentals.