Ethereum price breaks through $2,827, reaching a 15-week high

On June 10, 2025, the price of Ethereum broke through $2,827, setting a new 15-week high. Behind this price increase lies a potential liquidation storm involving $1.8 billion in short positions. In this seemingly coincidental market trend, the trading patterns of a mysterious large holder have become a key clue to interpreting market sentiment.

According to on-chain data, an anonymous address completed two precise operations within 44 days:

• April 27: Purchased 30,000 ETH at an average price of $1,830, total investment of $54.9 million;
• May 27: Sold an equivalent amount of ETH at a price of $2,621, earning a profit of $23.73 million, with a return rate of 43%;
• June 10: Sold 30,000 ETH again for $82.76 million, locking in a profit of $7.3 million, with a total profit of $31 million.

This operation is not an isolated case. Data shows that Ethereum futures open interest (OI) has first broken through the $40 billion mark, and the market leverage is close to a critical point. The current market presents a delicate balance: there is a long liquidation risk of $2 billion near the $2,600 mark, while there is a short liquidation risk of $1.8 billion above $2,900. This standoff between long and short positions could trigger a chain reaction from any directional breakout.

As prices rise, the Ethereum ecosystem is undergoing structural changes. In the second quarter, the number of independent active addresses grew by 70%, peaking at 16.4 million on June 10. One particular L2 network accounted for 72.81% (11.29 million addresses) of this growth, far exceeding the Ethereum mainnet's 14.8% (2.23 million addresses). This "L2 feeding back to the mainnet" model is fundamentally different from the logic of the early DeFi boom.

Despite Ethereum still holding a 61% share of the DeFi market with a TVL of $66 billion, its core revenue model has shown signs of concern:

• Transaction fees have significantly decreased: The network transaction fees in the past 30 days were only $43.3 million, a 90% drop compared to before the upgrade;
• Staking yields are sluggish: the annualized yield continues to hover at a low of 3.12%, which is lower than some competitors;
• Regulatory pressure: The scrutiny of ETH staking has resulted in a net outflow of $369 million from spot ETFs for 8 consecutive days, undermining institutional confidence.

On-chain data shows that the proportion of addresses holding ETH for the long term (over 1 year) has decreased from 63% to 55%, while the selling volume of short-term holders has increased by 47%. This reflects that the technological upgrades have not effectively translated into profits for holders, and the prosperity of the ecosystem may instead lead to value dilution.

In the futures market, the open interest (OI) of ETH futures has surpassed 40 billion USD for the first time, indicating a high market leverage and suggesting potential high volatility. The liquidation data reveals the intensity of capital competition:

• $2,600-2,665 range accumulated $2 billion long liquidation risk;
• Short positions worth 1.8 billion dollars above 2,900 dollars are facing liquidation;
• Institutional Participation: The institutional share of ETH futures open interest is 9%, lower than BTC futures at 24%, indicating that traditional capital remains cautious.

From a technical perspective, the current market shows the following characteristics:

• The daily Bollinger Bands have narrowed to 5%, the lowest level in recent times, indicating a potential breakout may be imminent;
• The weekly price stabilizes above the key moving averages, but technical indicators show divergence, suggesting that upward momentum may be insufficient;
• The closing price of $2,800 will become the dividing line between bulls and bears; a breakout may open up higher space, otherwise, it may pull back to $2,500 to seek support.

On a macro level, the geopolitical situation and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy present dual influencing factors. The market has high expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025, but if the actual path deviates, it could impact the crypto market significantly. At the same time, a certain bank has warned that if the trend of tokenizing real assets does not materialize in the third quarter, Ethereum may face a substantial risk of market capitalization shrinkage.

Looking to the future, Ethereum is facing key challenges and opportunities:

• Staking mechanism optimization: Increase the staking cap for validator nodes through proposals and improve the exit mechanism to alleviate liquidity pressure;
• L2 Value Rebate: Consider requiring L2 projects to allocate a portion of their transaction fee income to the mainnet, addressing the contradiction of "thriving ecosystem, low mainnet revenue";
• Regulatory Breakthrough: If a certain staking ETF is approved in the third quarter, it could bring a short-term increase of 15-20% and lock up about 8% of the circulating supply.

Market analysts believe that if it breaks through the key level of $2,800, Ethereum may initiate a new round of upward momentum. However, it is important to be cautious as the current market is still largely driven by leverage, with the existence of $1.8 billion in short positions acting as both potential fuel and risk factors. The market will ultimately validate who can seize the trend and who will face risks.