Macroeconomics and Crypto Assets Market Trends

The tax reduction bill promoted by the Trump administration has passed in the House of Representatives and is expected to be officially signed soon. Although this move may lead to a significant increase in U.S. debt, the strong performance of June non-farm payroll data provides support for the implementation of the policy. The employment report exceeded expectations, prompting the market to cool its expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but Goldman Sachs analysts still maintain the view that the Fed will continue to cut rates in the coming months.

At the same time, the compliance process in the encryption industry is accelerating. A well-known stablecoin issuer has applied for a national trust bank license in the United States, which is seen as a landmark event in the development of the industry. If approved, it will help consolidate its market position, attract more institutional clients, and set compliance standards for stablecoin regulation in the United States.

The Bitcoin market is sensitive to these macro factors. After the non-farm payroll data was released, the price of Bitcoin briefly surged but failed to break through the $110,000 mark. Several analysts hold an optimistic view on the medium to long-term prospects for Bitcoin, with some predicting it could reach $116,000 by the end of this month, and even more aggressive predictions suggest it could rise to the $150,000 to $200,000 range in the future.

However, in the short term, Bitcoin faces a resistance level of $112,000, with bearish divergence forming across multiple time frames. A well-known industry insider warned that due to Trump's "Big and Beautiful" plan, dollar liquidity may contract in the short term, potentially causing Bitcoin prices to drop to the $90,000 to $95,000 range. He expects that before the Federal Reserve Chairman's speech at the end of August, the market may trend sideways or slightly decline.

The performance of the altcoin market has been mixed, with some tokens showing slight increases, while the majority are still declining. Notably, some emerging tokens such as $PENGU, $LuckyCoin, and $invest have performed impressively recently, with significant gains.

Market Data Overview

As of July 4, 12:00 HKT:

• Bitcoin Price: $109,188, Year-to-date increase of 16.61%
• Ethereum Price: $2,579.71, Year-to-Date Decline 22.81%
• Market Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index 73, in the Greed Zone
• Market share: Bitcoin 64.5%, Ethereum 9.2%
• 24-hour liquidation total: 193 million USD

Outlook and Hotspots

• A well-known trading platform will launch a new project Palio(PAL)
• Lido DAO dual governance proposal approved, will go live on July 4th.
• Among the top 500 coins by market cap, Humanity Protocol and FUNToken stand out.
• Multiple institutions and individuals are making large transfers of Crypto Assets, attracting market attention.
• The "Too Big to Fail" Act in the United States has been passed, which may impact market liquidity.
• A certain bank in Switzerland has begun to support the custody and trading of Ripple stablecoin RLUSD.

Overall, the Crypto Assets market is at a critical moment, with changes in macroeconomic policy, regulatory environment, and the movements of institutional investors all having a significant impact on market trends. Investors need to closely monitor various factors and make prudent decisions.