The Resilience of Digital Assets in Turbulent Times

In June 2025, the global financial markets are undergoing an unprecedented stress test. The destruction of a large number of nuclear bombers by Ukrainian drones has raised concerns about nuclear proliferation, trade frictions between China and the United States have resurfaced, and tensions in the Middle East are escalating. Against this backdrop, the price of traditional safe-haven asset gold has soared to around $3,450 per ounce, while Bitcoin has shown remarkable stability around the $105,000 mark. This seemingly "decoupled" performance from the geopolitical crisis reflects a profound change in the underlying logic of the cryptocurrency market.

The weakening of the impact of geopolitical conflicts

damping of the shock effect

After Israel launched an airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 13, Bitcoin fell by 2% within just 2 hours but quickly stabilized, contrasting sharply with the 10% single-day plunge during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. This improvement in resilience stems from a qualitative change in market structure: data shows that by 2025, the proportion of long-term holders will exceed 70%, while speculative chips will drop to a five-year low. Institutional investors have effectively buffered the immediate impact of sudden events through a hedging system established in the derivatives market.

change in risk-hedging logic

The "digital gold" attribute of Bitcoin is being redefined. Amid expectations that the Federal Reserve may initiate a rate-cutting cycle, the negative correlation between Bitcoin and the actual yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has significantly strengthened, making it more of a "liquidity hedge" rather than merely a safe-haven asset. When the U.S. Treasury auction on June 1 encountered lukewarm demand, leading to a surge in actual rates, Bitcoin's reverse rally validated this new attribute.

localized absorption of geopolitical risks

The energy supply chain crisis triggered by the Middle East conflict has objectively accelerated the process of de-dollarization. The proportion of oil exports settled in Bitcoin through the Central Bank of Iran has exceeded 15%, and this penetration into the real economy has partially transformed geopolitical risks into rigid demand for Bitcoin. Blockchain analysis shows that the on-chain transaction volume of wallet addresses in conflict regions surged by 300% after the events.

The Impact of Macroeconomic Cycles

positive impact of the shift in monetary policy

The market's expected probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the third quarter has reached 68%, which is directly reflected in the steepening of the Bitcoin term structure: the annualized premium for the June 15 futures contract has risen to 23%, setting a new high since the 2024 halving. Historical data shows that in the three months leading up to the start of a rate cut cycle, Bitcoin's average increase reaches 37%, far exceeding gold's 12%.

relief of inflationary pressure

The core PCE price index in May fell to 2.8% year-on-year, and the supply chain pressure index returned to pre-pandemic levels. This weakened Bitcoin's anti-inflation narrative but unexpectedly released its "growth-sensitive asset" attribute. Some large enterprises have converted their held Bitcoin from "intangible assets" to "strategic reserves," marking the beginning of institutions incorporating it into their growth stock valuation framework.

Opportunities arising from the policy differences between China and the United States

The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for six consecutive months, while the U.S. Treasury has pushed the dollar index down 12% this year through a "controlled devaluation" strategy. This divergence in monetary policy has created conditions for cross-border capital to arbitrage through Bitcoin. Data shows that the over-the-counter trading volume of Bitcoin in the China-U.S. trade corridor surged during the tariff dispute.

Deep Transformation of Market Structure

de-leveraging of position structure

In the 2025 futures open interest, the proportion of hedging positions has for the first time surpassed 60%, and the funding rate for perpetual contracts has remained consistently stable at a low level. This change means that the market no longer relies on leveraged funds for momentum, and the "long-short double explosion" phenomenon commonly seen in 2021 has basically disappeared. The management scale of large Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded $130 billion, and their daily net subscription volume shows a significant negative correlation with the market volatility index.

Layered Enhancement of Liquidity Structure

The balance of institutional custody accounts on major trading platforms has surpassed 4 million Bitcoins, accounting for about 21% of the circulation. These "cold storage" chips form a natural price stabilizer, making it difficult for short-term selling pressure to break through key support levels. When panic selling was triggered by the Iranian missile attack on June 14, a large amount of buying pressure at the $100,000 level emerged, with 90% coming from institutional OTC desks.

Traditional Integration of Valuation Systems

The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index has decreased from 0.85 in 2021 to 0.32, while the correlation with the Russell 2000 small-cap stocks has risen to 0.61. This shift reflects that the market is reconstructing valuation logic using traditional asset pricing models: the volatility of Bitcoin has approached the level of tech growth stocks, well below the levels of 2021.

Short-term Price Trend Analysis

Bitcoin has recently found support near the 50-day simple moving average, but the bulls have struggled to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average, indicating a lack of buying interest at higher levels. According to the daily chart, the 20-day moving average is flattening out, and the relative strength index is around the midpoint, which does not provide a clear advantage for either the bulls or the bears.

If buyers push the price above the 20-day moving average, Bitcoin may rise to the range of $110,530 to $111,980. Sellers are expected to defend this upper region vigorously, but if the bulls gain the upper hand, the price may rise further.

On the downside, breaking below the 50-day moving average may challenge the key psychological level of $100,000. If this level is breached, the price could drop to $93,000.

The 4-hour chart shows that sellers are trying to prevent the price from rebounding at the 20-day moving average. If the price drops significantly and falls below $104,000, the short-term advantage will shift to the bears. Bulls must push the price above the 50-day moving average to gain control.

Future Trend Outlook

June-August: Consolidation and Accumulation Period

The Federal Reserve's policy vacuum may cause Bitcoin to fluctuate between $98,000 and $112,000. The key observation point is whether the July FOMC meeting will release a clear signal for interest rate cuts, while the technical aspect shows that the 200-day moving average will provide strong support. The impact of geopolitical conflicts still exists, but market depth indicators show that the amount of capital required for price fluctuations has significantly increased.

Nov 9-11: Possible main upward wave

Historical seasonal patterns show that the average increase in October is relatively high. Coupled with the potential first rate cut by the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin may embark on a journey to reach $150,000. The peak of U.S. Treasury maturities may force the Federal Reserve to expand its balance sheet, and the secondary release of dollar liquidity will become an important catalyst. The options market has already seen a significant accumulation of call options expiring in December with a strike price of $140,000.

Risk Warning

Regulatory uncertainties may trigger short-term volatility, but in the long run, the normalization of spot ETF approvals will attract more traditional asset management funds to enter the market. Investors should be cautious of the potential pullback that may occur at the end of the year, as historical data shows that the average drawdown during this phase of a bull market cycle is relatively large.

Conclusion

In the context of significant changes facing the current global monetary system, Bitcoin is playing a dual role: it is both a beneficiary of the instability of credit in the traditional financial system and a participant in the infrastructure of a new monetary order. Its price stability no longer solely derives from a reduction in volatility, but from a reconstruction of underlying value support—gradually evolving from a speculative tool into a liquidity bridge connecting the real economy. In this process of reconstructing the monetary order, Bitcoin is demonstrating its unique resilience and adaptability.