The quality of USDT reserves has improved, and the likelihood of a crash is low.

2025-07-04 15:24:10

Analysis of the Risk of USDT Collapse

As a mainstream stablecoin, USDT's asset reserve structure is similar to that of money market funds, mainly composed of cash and high-quality short-term bonds. Over time, the quality of USDT's asset reserves has continuously improved, with the proportion of commercial papers (CP) gradually decreasing, while the proportion of U.S. short-term Treasury bills (T-Bill) has been continuously increasing.

Data shows that from the second quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022, the proportion of CP decreased from 49% to 24%, while the proportion of T-Bill increased from 24% to 48%. It is expected that the proportion of CP will further decline to around 13% in the second quarter of 2022. At the same time, the quality of CP held in USDT is also improving, with the proportion of CP rated at AA or above increasing from 93% in the second quarter of 2021 to 99% in the first quarter of 2022.

Recent market fluctuations have provided liquidity stress testing for USDT. Over the past month, USDT has redeemed approximately 17 billion USD, with a circulation decrease of 20%. Notably, during the market panic triggered by the UST collapse from May 12 to 15, (, the daily redemption amount reached 10 billion USD. This indicates that USDT has the capacity to handle large-scale redemptions in the short term.

![The FUD surrounding USDT is rampant, data analysis explains why the possibility of a collapse is very small])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-25796799b5e04c1a999b27efcdd74bbe.webp(

Although USDT may face a decoupling risk in extreme cases, the probability of this happening is low. The reasons are as follows:

USDT plays an important role in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, with many trading pairs and over-the-counter trades relying on USDT, which accounts for about 20% of the total issuance.
USDT redemption is restricted by a whitelist mechanism, and only verified institutions can directly exchange with the issuer for USD, which reduces the possibility of large-scale capital outflows in the short term.
85% of the USDT reserves are in cash and cash equivalents, with more than half being highly liquid U.S. short-term government bonds, which help meet redemption demands.

![USDT暴雷FUD四起，数据详解为什么暴雷的可能性很小])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-77020d593a3903c24fa4fdb0718eca1e.webp(

The market arbitrage mechanism can stabilize the price of USDT to a certain extent. Even if a brief decoupling occurs, the intervention of arbitrageurs and speculators helps the price return.

![USDT Crash FUD is rampant, data analysis explains why the likelihood of a crash is very low])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-5bf278df7446bf5f8c258e053aae27ed.webp(

In summary, despite the challenges and doubts faced by USDT, considering its asset reserve structure, market position, and response mechanisms, the likelihood of USDT experiencing a collapse is relatively low. However, investors should remain vigilant and pay attention to changes in market dynamics and regulatory environments.

![USDT Crash FUD is rampant, data analysis on why the possibility of a crash is very small])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-75082458cc150beb02cac02c87108504.webp(

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