Crypto Market Weekly Report: BTC Price Declines, Alts Experience Rebound

Market Overview

This week, the crypto market is showing an overall trend of fluctuation and decline. The US dollar index is close to a new high for the year, putting pressure on risk assets. The strength of the dollar is not only due to the stickiness of US inflation and delayed interest rate cut expectations, but also reflects market concerns about geopolitical risks. Compared to the US stock market, the crypto market is performing even more weakly.

Bitcoin ( BTC ) has broken an important support level, but Ethereum ( ETH ) has performed relatively well. The main line of the market rebound revolves around the ETH ecosystem. Notably, projects like BLAST, KAS, and LISTA have performed remarkably well this week.

BTC Market Analysis

on-chain data

The market has entered a stage of exhaustion. Since June, the BTC price has fallen below the 3-month average holding cost, impacting investor confidence. Historically, similar major adjustments occur an average of 5 times.

The market capitalization supply of stablecoins is slowing down, reflecting a lack of new capital inflow into the crypto market. Institutional funds have net outflow for two consecutive weeks, but some funds are shifting towards alts.

The MVRV-Z Score indicator has fallen to 1.8, entering the middle zone. This indicator reflects the overall profit situation of the market, and the current level shows that holders are generally in a loss state.

Futures Market

The funding rate for futures has slightly decreased, but it still shows that the long leverage is heavy. The open interest in BTC futures continues to decline. The long-to-short ratio for futures is 2.4, indicating that retail investors have a high bottom-fishing sentiment, and the market may not have reached its bottom yet.

spot market

The price of BTC has been in a sideways consolidation since reaching an all-time high in March. The trading volume on centralized exchanges (CEX) has dropped to levels seen at the end of last year, while the trading volume on decentralized exchanges (DEX) remains stable. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to strengthen, and future opportunities may primarily revolve around the ETH ecosystem.

Public Chain and DeFi Data

This week's total locked value (TVL) decreased by 5.6% to 95.3 billion USD. The TVL of major public chains has almost all declined, with the BLAST chain experiencing the largest drop of 27%. Notably, the TON chain's TVL has risen against the trend by 107% this month.

The major DeFi protocols on various public chains have generally seen a decline in locked value. Leading protocols on chains such as Ethereum, BSC, Polygon, Arbitrum, Optimism, Base, and Solana have all been affected to varying degrees.

NFT market situation

The NFT market continues to be sluggish. The floor prices of mainstream blue-chip projects have dropped significantly, with CryptoPunks down 13%, BAYC down 17%, and Pudgy Penguins down 28%. Only the Milady project saw a slight increase of 4%.

Overall trading volume has slightly decreased, with blue-chip project trading volume generally dropping by about 20%. The number of new buyers and repeat buyers is also gradually decreasing. Overall, the NFT market environment remains very harsh.