2025 Crypto Market Outlook: Four Scenarios and Eleven Predictions

Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the crypto market has experienced significant growth. The price of Bitcoin has surged from $50,000 to over $60,000 and is currently hovering around $90,000. It is noteworthy that altcoin markets often kick off when Bitcoin reaches its peak, and this pattern may repeat in the coming months.

Looking ahead to 2025, we can foresee four possible market scenarios:

1. Bitcoin and altcoins generally rise (30-40% probability)
2. Bitcoin rises, and some quality altcoins follow (50-60% probability)
3. Bitcoin rises, while altcoins generally decline (20-30% probability)
4. Bitcoin fell, altcoins generally fell (10-20% probability)

Changes in the political environment may have a positive impact on the crypto market. The new regime's increased attention to digital assets helps in the propagation of the Bitcoin narrative. However, investors still need to be wary of potential risks, including the cycle peak, policy uncertainty, supply pressure, and macroeconomic changes.

In terms of token selection, fields such as AI, DeFi, L1 public chains, NFTs, and game tokens are worth paying attention to. Among them, AI applications, Swarms, and consumer-oriented AI projects may perform outstandingly. Although DeFi remains an important narrative, the investment difficulty is relatively high. In L1 public chains, SUI and Hype are worth noting. NFT tokens and game tokens may also encounter opportunities.

For 2025, we have the following 11 predictions:

1. A large company will implement the DePIN project.
2. A certain trading platform's market share may exceed that of the existing leading platforms.
3. Metaverse tokens may revive due to advancements in VR technology.
4. ICO model may become popular again
5. There may not be a large-scale altcoin market on the Ethereum chain.
6. Sui price is expected to reach double digits.
7. Ethereum ETF staking may be approved, driving the development of new yield products.
8. Famous artists may use NFTs and tokens to enhance fan interaction.
9. The price of Bitcoin may reach $200,000
10. More L1 project executives may leave.
11. Base may fall behind in the L1 competition, while Solana may maintain its advantage.

Overall, the crypto market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2025, but investors need to closely monitor market changes and adjust their strategies flexibly.