2024 U.S. Election: Trump's rising support rate sparks market follow

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, data from prediction platforms show that Trump's support rate is gradually rising. The latest forecast indicates he has received a 53% approval rate, while his main competitor, Harris, has a support rate of 46%. This change in data has sparked widespread follow, especially in the financial markets and the cryptocurrency community. As the Republican candidate, Trump's rising support not only reflects his advantages in economic policy, voter mobilization, and party cohesion but also reveals the challenges Harris faces during the campaign.

This article will delve into the key factors driving the rise in Trump's approval ratings, including controversies over economic policies, the attitudes of centrist voters, the political influence of key states, and the support from the cryptocurrency industry, to help readers gain a more comprehensive understanding of this complex electoral dynamic.

I. Economic Policy Controversies

The economic policies proposed by Harris have sparked widespread controversy in American society, especially among moderate voters.

1. The price control policy is under scrutiny.

The price control measures proposed by Harris aim to limit the pricing power of businesses on essential goods to prevent price gouging. However, economists and policy experts widely question their feasibility. Many experts believe that price controls may lead to market distortions, resulting in supply chain issues and product shortages. This concern has hurt Harris's support among centrist voters, especially among those who follow economic stability and market freedom.

2. Housing policy faces challenges

Harris proposed a plan to build a large number of affordable housing for the middle class. However, the execution cost of this policy is extremely high, and its economic feasibility and actual effectiveness have been questioned. The uncertainty regarding the sources of funding and the details of policy implementation has caused unease among centrist voters and has also raised doubts about Harris's credibility in executing the policy.

3. Limited appeal to the middle class

Harris's economic policy centers on improving the quality of life for the middle class, emphasizing the increase of child tax credits and controlling healthcare costs. However, the long-term sustainability of these policies and the source of funding remain contentious issues. Additionally, Harris's attempt to link economic policy with social justice issues has raised concerns among conservatives and some moderates.

4. Overall Impact on Election Situation

Overall, Harris's economic policies, while demonstrating care for the middle class and low-income groups, have failed to effectively boost her support among centrist and economically liberal voters due to the radical nature of the policy design and lack of execution details. This provides Trump with a basis for attack, allowing him to emphasize his experience in economic management and support for market freedom, thereby attracting more voters concerned about economic stability and growth.

II. The Attitudes of Moderate Voters are Wavering

Centrist voters play a key role in U.S. elections. Against the backdrop of controversy surrounding Harris's economic policies, support for her among centrist voters has begun to decline. In contrast, while Trump's economic policies are also controversial, his clear stance on tax cuts and economic stimulus aligns more closely with centrist voters' expectations for economic development.

Trump's support for the free market and the economic measures he took during his presidency, such as tax cuts and deregulation, have garnered recognition from some centrist voters. In contrast, Harris's economic policies are considered too radical, particularly in areas such as price controls and housing subsidies, making it difficult for her to increase her support among centrists.

3. The Influence of Key Political Figures in States

The absence of the Pennsylvania governor at a certain meeting had a negative impact on Harris's election prospects. As a key swing state, the attitudes of its voters are crucial to the outcome of the national election. This absence could be interpreted as dissatisfaction within the party regarding Harris's economic policies or campaign strategies, and this discontent may further weaken Harris's support in the state.

In this case, voters may doubt Harris's campaign ability and party cohesion, thus turning to support the more certain Trump. This not only affects Harris's electoral prospects in Pennsylvania but also indirectly impacts her performance in other swing states. Ensuring party unity and support in key states is crucial for Harris's campaign success, but this event undoubtedly increases her challenges in this regard.

4. Trump's Interaction with the Cryptocurrency Industry

Trump's support for the cryptocurrency industry is another important factor in the rise of his approval ratings. Although Trump initially had a negative attitude towards cryptocurrencies, he gradually changed his stance and began to actively support the crypto industry as the market developed.

In the 2024 election, Trump became one of the first major candidates to openly accept cryptocurrency donations. His campaign team announced that they would accept donations in various cryptocurrencies. This move not only demonstrated his open attitude towards cryptocurrencies but also established a closer connection with the crypto community.

The decision to accept cryptocurrency donations is a strategic step that not only expands Trump's voter base but also attracts young voters and tech enthusiasts who are skeptical of the traditional financial system. These voters often have a strong identification with decentralization, free markets, and financial innovation, and by accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump sends them a clear signal of support for this emerging field.

In addition to accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump has made a series of policy commitments that further solidify his position within the crypto community. He stated that if elected again, he would promote the inclusion of Bitcoin in the United States' strategic reserves and consider using Bitcoin to address some national debt issues. While these proposals have sparked widespread controversy in mainstream finance, they have received a warm response within the crypto community.

This supportive attitude has earned widespread recognition in the crypto community. Compared to Harris, Trump's stance in the cryptocurrency field is more clear and proactive, gaining him a large number of supporters in this emerging market. Practitioners and investors in the cryptocurrency industry are very sensitive to the market's prospects and are more willing to support a candidate who holds an open attitude towards the crypto industry.

V. The Influence of Cryptocurrency Companies in Elections

According to data, nearly half of the corporate political donations during the 2024 election cycle came from crypto companies. These companies influence election outcomes by supporting candidates that align with their interests. The crypto industry's support for Trump is not only verbal but also substantially impacts the election through financial assistance.

This corporate-level support further consolidates Trump's position in the crypto community and related industries. As more crypto companies and individual investors funnel funds into supporting Trump's political action committee, Trump's financial and promotional advantages in the election are strengthened, which directly drives his rise in the prediction markets.

Conclusion

The rise in Trump's election rate is the result of multiple factors working together. Harris's economic policies have sparked controversy, particularly among moderate voters, making it difficult for her support to increase. The absence of key political figures in battleground states has intensified concerns about divisions within the party, further weakening Harris's support in these critical states. Meanwhile, Trump's supportive stance towards the crypto industry has earned him widespread recognition in this emerging market. Additionally, political donations from crypto companies have provided strong support for Trump's campaign.

In the coming months, both Trump and Harris will face significant challenges. They need to continuously adjust their strategies to gain more voter support, especially among key swing state voters. For Trump, continuing to solidify his position in the crypto industry and expanding his appeal to moderate voters will be key to maintaining his lead. Meanwhile, Harris needs to find a breakthrough to regain the trust of moderate voters while strengthening party unity to cope with the impending climax of the election battle.

Regardless of the final outcome, this election will have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market in the United States and globally. For investors and market participants, closely following the policy trends of the two candidates will be key to formulating future investment strategies.