Market Observation Weekly Report [6.16 - 6.20]: Geopolitical impacts intensify, Mainstream Token fluctuates and adjusts, market is poised for a breakout from high levels.

Market fluctuates and adjusts, Mainstream Token accumulates strength at high levels

The macroeconomic situation is complex and changeable, and market sentiment is cautious:

Israel's military actions against Iran have triggered a brief risk-off sentiment, leading to reduced market volatility. Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are rising, but investors are leaning towards a wait-and-see approach.

The momentum of capital inflow is weakening:

The net inflow of cryptocurrency ETFs is $1.02 billion, but the growth rate is slowing down. The growth rate of stablecoin issuance has decreased, and the USDT premium has weakened, indicating a cautious attitude of funds entering the market.

Mainstream Token price trends diverge:

Bitcoin pulled back after a rise, while Ethereum first increased and then decreased. Some institutions continue to increase their holdings of Bitcoin, and the overall structure remains neutral to strong.

Small Market Cap Coins Face Resistance:

The TOTAL2 index rebounded but faced resistance and fell back, while the market share of OTHERS stopped declining and fluctuated. On-chain activity reported 53, indicating that it has not yet emerged from weakness.

The market is at the end of consolidation; in the short term, we need to wait for a breakthrough in funds. Pay attention to the strengthening structure of small-cap coins and signs of fund inflow into mainstream tokens.

1. Macroeconomic Environment Analysis

• The Federal Reserve's meeting tone is neutral, maintaining the expectation of two rate cuts within the year. However, due to tariffs, upward revisions of inflation, and downward revisions of the economy, the path for rate cuts is becoming more cautious.
• In the third quarter, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to immediately cut interest rates due to the impact of oil prices, tariffs, and a low base. It is expected that the impact of tariffs and the trend of oil prices will be confirmed after mid-August, with September possibly being the first point for an interest rate cut. Core inflation may rise to 3.0% by the end of the year.

2. Fund Flow and Mainstream Token Analysis

External Capital Flow

• ETF funds: $2.8 billion inflow this week, a significant increase.
• Stablecoin: This week, an increase of 2.3 billion USD was issued, with an average of 321 million USD per day, remaining at a high level.

Market Sentiment Indicator

• OTC Premium: Stablecoin premium continues to rise

Bitcoin(BTC)

• Technical analysis: In a volatile upward range
• On-chain chips: Chips above $103,000 are enhanced

Ethereum(ETH)

• Performance is weaker than BTC, ETH/BTC ratio fluctuates, and funds continue to flow into BTC.
• On-chain data: Active addresses are rising, or indicating that a phase bottom has formed.