Crypto Market May Analysis Report

1. Macroeconomic Situation

In May 2025, the US economy is at a critical turning point. Inflation continues to fall, the labor market remains resilient, monetary policy enters a wait-and-see period, there is uncertainty in trade policy, and fiscal operations influence market expectations through debt. Against this backdrop, the crypto market demonstrates strong resilience, and the structure of global risk assets may be heading for a new round of revaluation.

inflation trend

In April, the CPI year-on-year rate dropped to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, indicating that price pressures continue to ease. The U.S. Treasury Department initiated a $40 billion Treasury bond buyback operation, regarded as a "quasi-QE" measure aimed at releasing liquidity and refinancing at low interest rates, becoming an important force supporting the prices of risk assets.

employment market

In April, non-farm employment increased by 177,000, exceeding market expectations and reflecting the resilience of the job market. This provides a basis for the Federal Reserve to maintain a wait-and-see policy. The continued strength in employment alleviates recession fears and also diminishes the likelihood of multiple unexpected rate cuts within the year.

monetary policy trends

The Federal Reserve Chairman stated that they will reassess the current monetary policy framework and may abandon the "average inflation targeting" mechanism. In the future, they might extend the period of high interest rates and even increase the holding of medium- to long-term government bonds through balance sheet expansion to control the rise in long-term rates. The policy tone will be more flexible, and there is no urgency for preventive interest rate cuts in the short term.

Trade Policy and Global Economy

The announcement at the beginning of May regarding the increase in tariffs on EU goods triggered market fluctuations. The People's Bank of China implemented a "reduction in reserve requirements + interest rate cuts" combination policy, releasing 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, which is seen as the start of a new round of easing cycle, leading to rising market expectations for improvement in China-U.S. relations.

2. Crypto Market Overview

Trading Volume Analysis

As of May 27, the average daily trading volume in the market was $117.4 billion, an increase of 15.8% compared to the previous period. During two phases from May 6 to 12 and from May 21 to 22, trading volume surged significantly, with daily trading volume at one point exceeding $180 billion, and BTC prices breaking $100,000 and $110,000 respectively.

market capitalization change

As of May 27, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has risen to $3.56 trillion, an increase of 17.0% compared to last month. BTC's market share is 62.6%, and ETH's market share is 9.6%, with the latter having grown by 29.7% compared to the previous period. Since May 8, after the total market value surpassed $3.3 trillion, it has been steadily rising.

Popular New Coins

Among the popular tokens launched in May, VC-backed projects dominate, including Layer 2 projects SOPH, B2, and others. In addition, USD1-related projects like B, Lista, Staketone, and others have also received widespread attention.

3. On-chain Data Analysis

ETF capital flow

In May, BTC ETF had a net inflow of $5.77 billion, while ETH ETF had a net inflow of $317 million. The price of Bitcoin rose from $94,212 at the beginning of the month to $108,969, an increase of approximately 13.5%. Ethereum rose from $1,794 to $2,635, with an increase of 31.9%.

stablecoin market

In May, the total circulation of stablecoins increased by approximately $7.28 billion, mainly driven by the growth of USDT, USDE, and DAI.

4. Mainstream Cryptocurrency Price Analysis

Bitcoin ( BTC )

The BTC price remains above $109,588, indicating active buying interest. The uptrend has persisted for seven weeks, and if it continues into the eighth week, it will pave the way for further increases. The short-term key support level is around the 20-day moving average at $104,886.

Ethereum ( ETH )

ETH rebounded from the 20-day moving average ($2,425), indicating strong demand at lower price levels. Bulls will attempt to break the $2,738 resistance again. If successful, it may rise to $3,000, potentially facing resistance around $2,850 along the way.

Solana ( SOL )

SOL found support at the 20-day moving average ($169), and the bulls will attempt to break through the $188 resistance level again. If successful, it could rise to the $210-$220 range. The main support level below is around the 50-day moving average at $151.

5. Hot Events

USD1 ecological development

As of May 28, USD1's market capitalization surpassed 2.1 billion USD, making it the seventh largest stablecoin. Its core advantage lies in its issuance being led by the Trump family, making it the first stablecoin project endorsed by a president. The prices of multiple tokens related to USD1's partners have surged significantly, driving up the popularity of the "WLFI+USD1" concept.

Rise of the Believe platform

The core token of the Believe platform, Launchcoin, peaked at $0.36 within the month, with a market capitalization nearing $310 million at one point. The platform focuses on the concept of "social assetization," allowing users to automatically trigger token issuance by posting on platform X. However, after the heavily supported token $YAPPER launched, it plummeted, raising concerns in the community.

6. Future Outlook

Stablecoin Bill Progress

The "GENIUS Act" has entered the amendment process through a debate motion. The core of the bill includes issuance qualification restrictions, reserve requirements, compliance obligations, and other content, aimed at strengthening the international leading position of USD-pegged stablecoins. In the future, stablecoin projects with strong compliance are expected to gain greater market recognition.

Ethereum ETF pledge approval

The SEC has postponed its decision on Grayscale's Ethereum Trust ETF to June 1. In contrast, Hong Kong has approved several funds to provide staking services for Ethereum ETFs. The market expects that U.S. regulators may soon reach a framework on the relevant mechanisms, promoting the approval of Ethereum spot ETFs. Once achieved, it will drive a new wave of market enthusiasm for Ethereum and related assets such as Lido, Eigen, etc.