Bitcoin may reach $330k before the bull market ends.

The price of Bitcoin has gone through a month of volatility, but recent analysis shows that BTC could break out an additional 300% in this cycle. Technical analyst Gert van Lagen emphasizes the AVIV Ratio, a measure that compares the active market capitalization of Bitcoin ( circulating supply ) with the total actual invested capital ( real capital, excluding miner rewards ).

According to historical data, whenever the AVIV Ratio exceeds the standard deviation threshold of +3σ, it is often a sign that the market has reached a cycle peak. Specifically, Bitcoin reached about 1,200 dollars in 2013, nearly 20,000 dollars in 2017, and around 69,000 dollars in 2021 when this index hit those respective levels. Currently, the AVIV Ratio has not yet surpassed those historical peaks, implying that Bitcoin still has room for growth, with the potential to reach at least 330,000 dollars in this cycle before hitting the +3σ standard deviation threshold.

Bitcoin: AVIV Ratio | Source: Gert Van LagenThe AVIV Ratio provides a unique perspective on market dynamics, reflecting investor activity against value that has been "locked in". When the index spikes, it indicates increased trading activity or profit-taking—usually a signal that precedes large price movements. Van Lagen's analysis links this to Bitcoin's cyclicality, where price rallies after (ATH) all-time highs in the past often yield significant returns. However, the accuracy of the forecast of this index has not been tested in different market conditions and volatility is still unpredictable.

To add to this context, data from CryptoQuant recorded a notable change: the amount of Bitcoin held at OTC desks decreased from 166,500 to 137,400 BTC in 2025. This declining trend suggests that large investors are moving assets off exchanges — possibly a sign of reduced selling pressure or a shift towards long-term storage.

Bitcoin: Total balance on the OTC desk | Source: CryptoQuantThe decline in balances at OTC trading desks this year stems from the strategic accumulation activities of institutional investors, led by strong purchases from Strategy and new organizations like Metaplanet – a company that has accumulated 10,000 BTC. Additionally, there is a net inflow of capital into Bitcoin spot ETF funds with a total net value of up to 128.18 billion dollars. BlackRock's crypto portfolio is currently holding more than 70 billion dollars worth of BTC – clearly reflecting the intentions of major investors in the current market.

Source: Arkham## The power model values Bitcoin between 220,000 and 330,000 dollars

Similar to the price target of $330,000 proposed by Van Lagen, another study by Bitcoin analyst Sminston With also predicts the peak cycle within a corresponding range. With's analysis is based on a 365-day simple moving average (SMA), combining the power law (power law) model with a correlation coefficient of R² = 0.96. According to this model, the price of Bitcoin in the current cycle could reach between $220,000 and $330,000.

Bitcoin: Power Law Model | Source: Sminston WithCurrently trading around $104,000, BTC will need to increase by 100% to 200% to reach these price levels, consistent with historical peaks when the price has doubled or tripled compared to the power trend.

With's model has broken the hypothesis of diminishing volatility, showing that Bitcoin's price cycles still retain strong fluctuations, as evidenced by continuous deviations from the main trend line. Although it carries a strong optimistic tone, the researcher also cautiously emphasizes that this analysis is based on data from only four market cycles, so it is necessary to maintain a skeptical attitude and not underestimate potential risks.

Similarly, Bitcoin Magazine reported that the list of 30 market top indicators from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin could rise to $230,000 and there are no indicators signaling the cycle peak even though BTC has reached $112,000. Indicators such as Pi Cycle Top and MVRV suggest that the bull market still has room for growth, reinforcing With's optimistic outlook.

Minh Anh