Raoul Pal: Bitcoin will rise to the sky more than in 2017, the cycle will last until 2026

The CEO of the crypto research platform Real Vision, Raoul Pal, recently shared an optimistic forecast about the current crypto market, suggesting that the current market is reflecting a pattern similar to that of 2017. In that year, Bitcoin experienced a period of steady growth throughout the year, before suddenly exploding in December. Pal believes we are in a similar cycle and forecasts it could last until 2026.

Pal explained that, just like in 2017, Bitcoin has witnessed steady growth for most of the year, before experiencing a strong surge at the end of the year. According to him, this is a sign that the current cycle may develop in a similar way and is likely to last longer than previous cycles.

One important factor that Pal emphasizes is the macroeconomic model he uses to track global economic cycles. According to him, the current business cycle point is still below 50, indicating that the economy is still in a long-term growth phase. These cycles often require a long period to reach their peak, opening up positive prospects for the crypto market in the future.

Bitcoin started the year 2017 with a trading price of only $1,044, but reached $2,187 on May 31 and ended the year at $14,156, equivalent to an increase of 1,255%. This indicates the strong surge of Bitcoin at the end of 2017. However, Pal believes that macro factors such as the weakening US dollar may suggest that the current crypto market cycle will extend further and has not yet peaked.

"With the dollar depreciating even recently, I believe this cycle could last until the second quarter of 2026."

As of now, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has decreased by 8.99% to a level of 98.77. Pal pointed out that the weakness of the US dollar has an inverse correlation with Bitcoin, meaning that when the dollar declines, Bitcoin becomes more attractive as an alternative asset.

! BTC price chart from 2017 to now | Source: TradingViewPal emphasized that one of the key factors driving the current crypto cycle may last longer is the change in global macroeconomic factors.

"These macro factors have changed all cycles. Interest rates have not been adjusted, and the dollar has maintained a stable trend for a long time," he explained. According to Pal, these factors create a favorable environment, allowing the current crypto market cycle to potentially last longer than previous cycles.

According to Pal, the current crypto market has more similarities to the period of 2020 than to 2021 – a time that witnessed strong growth but was also not without significant corrections. He believes that we may be in the early stages of a long-term cycle, a phase that many may not yet recognize the importance of.

In a notable development, Pal also shared his observations on the strong shift in perspective towards cryptocurrencies in the Middle East. According to him, the region is actively ramping up investments in blockchain technology and AI — two areas that are deeply interconnected with the future development of cryptocurrencies.

"Not only stopping at using Bitcoin as a reserve asset, countries in the Middle East are currently building an entire government infrastructure based on blockchain," Pal said after his recent visit to the region, where he met with sovereign wealth funds. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Bahrain, and Qatar all show an optimistic outlook towards blockchain and cryptocurrencies, viewing it as a key factor in their future economic development strategy.

"In the Middle East, the current focus is on developing AI and blockchain," he added.

Raoul Pal not only forecasts the development of the crypto market but also emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors in driving the long-term crypto cycle. He believes that the current cycle could last until 2026, thanks to the weakening of the US dollar and the explosion of breakthrough technologies such as blockchain and AI, especially in the Middle East. These factors combined create an extremely favorable context for the strong development of cryptocurrency in the near future.

With sharp analyses and optimistic forecasts, Raoul Pal continues to assert his position as one of the leading experts in the field of crypto and macro financial investment, always grasping the most important trends to provide valuable insights for investors.

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