The US labor market remains stable, and the Federal Reserve (FED) may delay restarting interest rate cuts until September.

On July 3, the U.S. labor market showed strong performance in June, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, higher than the revised 144,000 in May; the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, while economists had previously expected a slight rise to 4.3%. The report indicates that the labor market remains stable, which may delay The Federal Reserve's (FED) decision to restart interest rate cuts until September. Despite the job growth exceeding expectations, the pace is slowing, primarily reflecting weak hiring activity. Layoffs remain quite low, as employers generally hoarded workers during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, making it difficult to find labor. Several indicators, including initial jobless claims and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, show signs of fatigue in the labor market after a strong performance in protecting the economy from recession. At that time, the FED significantly tightened monetary policy to combat high inflation. ( Jin10 )