The Great Game of China's Digital Currency: Offshore Renminbi Stablecoin Accelerates, RDA Paradigm Challenges Dollar Hegemony

In the context of the accelerated evolution of global digital finance, offshore renminbi stablecoins are emerging rapidly, prompting deep reflection in the market on the internationalization of the renminbi and the hegemony of the US dollar. Recently, Chinese tech giants such as JD.com and Ant Group have been actively lobbying for the issuance of stablecoins denominated in offshore renminbi (CNH) in Hong Kong. The Governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), Pan Gongsheng, has also expressed an open attitude towards stablecoins, recognizing their potential in cross-border payments. At the same time, the Shanghai Data Exchange proposed a new paradigm of RDA (Real Data Assets) "Real Number Integration" in 2025, aiming to deeply bind real data with physical assets through blockchain technology, forming standardized digital assets that can be confirmed, traded, and financed, providing a new strategic path for the development of renminbi stablecoins.

1. Offshore Renminbi Stablecoin: From Concept to Practical Implementation

A series of events indicate that offshore Renminbi stablecoins are transitioning from concept to practical implementation:

Policy "Breaking the Ice" and Major Players Entering the Market: On May 21, the Hong Kong Legislative Council passed the "Stablecoin Bill", which came into effect on May 30, providing a formal regulatory framework for fiat-linked stablecoins (FRS). Subsequently, Ant Group and JD.com actively responded, stating they would apply for stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong and plan to seek permissions in places like Singapore and Luxembourg to support their cross-border payment and fund management services. Guotai Junan International received approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to upgrade its virtual asset trading license, which is also seen as a signal of the "national team" entering the crypto industry.

Central Attitude is Open: According to a report by Reuters, mainland technology giants have repeatedly lobbied the People's Bank of China to strive for the issuance of stablecoins denominated in offshore renminbi (CNH) in Hong Kong. The governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, has also expressed the central government's open attitude towards stablecoins on issues such as stablecoins, acknowledging that it achieves "payment upon settlement" significantly shortening the cross-border payment chain while emphasizing the enormous challenges posed by financial regulation.

Hong Kong as a testing ground: The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Ordinance" will take effect on August 1, and the Monetary Authority will open the licensing application. Stablecoin licenses are scarce, with only single-digit numbers expected to be issued, but more than 40 companies are already preparing to apply, leading to fierce competition. The applicants are almost exclusively major Chinese financial institutions and internet giants. As a "testing ground" for the development of stablecoins in China, Hong Kong accumulates experience in system design, market operation, and risk prevention and control through a pilot approach, laying the policy and practical foundation for the broader promotion of stablecoins in the mainland in the future.

2. The Nature of Stablecoins and the Challenges of the Renminbi Stablecoin

Misunderstandings and Definitions of Stablecoins: Experts point out that stablecoins are essentially a mapping of fiat currency on the blockchain, a digital expression of credit, utilizing blockchain technology to connect the virtual and real worlds, and undertaking functions such as payment and settlement, with a strong transitional nature. It is neither "the blockchain version of Alipay," nor is it fully decentralized, and it should not be misunderstood as "decentralized."

Challenging the Dollar Hegemony: The brewing of offshore Renminbi stablecoins inevitably faces the grand proposition of "challenging the dollar hegemony." The dollar has long monopolized the core position of the global financial and payment systems, even in the world of cryptocurrencies. The Renminbi accounts for less than 3% of traditional cross-border payments; can the emerging Renminbi stablecoin shake up this pattern?

Payment Efficiency: Stablecoin technology is expected to significantly improve cross-border payment efficiency. However, with the standardization of regulations, the compliance costs of stablecoins may also increase, making it difficult for the renminbi stablecoin to use payment efficiency as a revolutionary point to overtake and challenge the hegemony of the US dollar.

System Credibility: The US dollar has long been viewed by global investors and official institutions as the most reliable store of value and pricing currency, thanks to the economic strength and financial system advantages of the United States. For the renminbi stablecoin to earn similar trust, China needs to provide sufficient confidence support in macroeconomic policy stability, renminbi value stability, and convertibility. Hong Kong's regulatory framework has been carefully designed for the trust mechanism of stablecoins, which will ensure high levels of reserve transparency and fund security for the renminbi stablecoin.

Compliance and Global Coordination: The launch of the Renminbi stablecoin is, to some extent, "starting anew" outside the existing international financial framework, and its compliance and legal status need to be recognized by regulators in various countries. Hong Kong provides a viable path, with the hope of creating a multinational compliance network that can coexist in parallel with the US dollar stablecoin, thereby eroding a portion of the US dollar's trading share.

Network Effects and User Base: The competition of currencies ultimately boils down to competition of network effects. The renminbi stablecoin started late and is inherently at a weak network position; to challenge the US dollar, it must quickly expand its own network. China has the largest trade volume and supply chain system in the world. If the renminbi stablecoin can take the lead in promoting itself in cross-border e-commerce and supply chain finance, it will rapidly accumulate real transaction demand and user base.

3. China Proposes Stablecoin RDA "Real Number Integration" New Paradigm

The RDA (Real Data Assets) innovative paradigm proposed by the Shanghai Data Exchange in 2025 provides a new idea of "real number integration" for the development of the RMB stablecoin.

The core concept of RDA: RDA is an extension of RWA (Real World Assets), and the core idea is "real number integration". Through Blockchain technology, it deeply binds reliable data with physical assets, forming standardized digital assets that can be confirmed for equity, traded, and financed. RDA places greater emphasis on the authenticity verification of data and the value-added effect, generating stablecoins for specific scenarios.

Functions and Application Scenarios: RDA provides innovative financial tools for the real economy by combining data assets with stablecoin.

Commodity Pricing Power: RDA generates stablecoins (such as "STEEL-CNY") linked to the Renminbi by encapsulating trading data of bulk commodities (like steel), supporting trade settlement and profit sharing, and is expected to promote the Renminbi's pricing power in the commodity market.

Logistics and International Trade: RDA integrates logistics data to generate stablecoins (such as "Freight Treasure CNY") for cross-border payments and settlements, improving efficiency and reducing costs, and promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi.

Data Element Market: RDA realizes the standardization, productization, and financialization of data assets through Blockchain, promoting the linkage between data and capital markets.

Issuers and Challenges: The RDA stablecoin is primarily pegged to the Renminbi and is jointly issued by financial institutions, data exchanges, or core enterprises in the industry chain. Despite facing challenges such as insufficient standardization of data assets, high technical thresholds, and regulatory pressures, the outlook for RDA is promising, driven by policy support and market demand.

Four, the Challenge of Dollar Hegemony and the Future of the RMB Stablecoin

Huang Yiping, the director of the National Development Research Institute at Peking University, believes that digital assets and traditional assets will coexist for a long time in the future. Whether stablecoins will consolidate the dominance of the U.S. dollar still needs to be observed. He pointed out that using the U.S. dollar for stablecoins requires caution, as it may exacerbate risks. Creating a stablecoin pegged to the offshore renminbi in Hong Kong is a possibility.

Morgan Stanley pointed out that the widespread use of the US dollar stablecoin may exacerbate the global trend of "dollarization," but the launch of the renminbi stablecoin has already placed a key piece on the digital financial chessboard. In the long run, whether the renminbi stablecoin can challenge the US dollar also depends on China's own pace of financial openness and the international community's confidence in the renminbi.

Conclusion:

The imminent emergence of offshore RMB stablecoins, along with China's proposed RDA "Real Number Fusion" new paradigm, marks China's active exploration of new paths for the internationalization of the RMB in the digital finance sector. Although RMB stablecoins are unlikely to shake the dollar's hegemony in the short term, their application potential in cross-border payments, commodity pricing power, and data factor markets is immense. In the coming years, we may not see the dollar's position replaced, but we may witness a gradual rewriting of the dollar's dominant landscape: multiple fiat stablecoins such as the dollar, euro, and RMB coexisting and competing, leading the global monetary system towards a more diversified and balanced direction.