Could XRP rally amid high ETF optimism? Check forecast

The cryptocurrency market continues its poor performance this week, with the total crypto market cap shrinking to $3.25 trillion after losing 2% of its value on Tuesday.

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is trading below $106k while Ether continues to struggle within the sub-$2,400 region.

XRP, Ripple’s native coin, is not left out as it lost 3% of its value in the last 24 hours. However, analysts remain optimistic about its short to medium-term performance amid strong fundamentals.

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas raised the odds of a spot XRP ETF

XRP is currently trading in the red but could rally higher soon if analysts’ predictions hold.

Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Sayffart recently published their projections for the ratification of various spot Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs).

According to the analysts, there is a 95% chance that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot XRP ETF

James Seyffart

@JSeyff
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Here are mine and @EricBalchunas‘ most recent odds on spot crypto ETF approvals by the end of 2025. We expect a wave of new ETFs in this second half of 2025.

10:18 PM · Jun 30, 2025
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Currently, asset management firms, including Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary Capital, 21Shares, WisdomTree, CoinShares, and Franklin Templeton, have filed for spot XRP ETFs with the SEC.

The Bloomberg analysts believe that the SEC could approve all applications

Eric Balchunas believes that there is a possibility that the SEC to approve a spot XRP ETF this month. However, for that to happen, the regulator would have to move fast with its review.

Regardless, Balchunas pointed out that the ETF could launch before the end of the year.

Eric Balchunas

@EricBalchunas
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Replying to @lazyvillager1

Good qs.

1. It’s a fair point but I think they will allow eth staking

2. Yeah it would but we were high odds re XRP already albeit this year vs end of July. July poss but would take pretty fast mvmt

8:29 PM · Jun 30, 2025
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XRP could retest $2.5 despite the bearish trend

The XRP/USD 4-hour chart is bearish thanks to the coin’s poor performance over the last few days. The pair is also efficient, suggesting that the bears might not sweep any liquidity to the upside before dropping lower.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 48 shows that XRP is losing its buying pressure, with sellers now taking control of the market.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is still within the positive territory but could dip into the negative zone soon.

If the bearish trend persists, XRP could test the $2.06 support level over the next few hours. A drop below this level could trigger a further selloff that could see XRP test the $1.90 low for the second time in three weeks

However, the fundamentals are currently in favour of an XRP rally. If the bulls regain control, XRP could test last month’s high of $2.34. In the event of an extended rally, XRP could touch the $2.65 level for the first time since May

Key areas of interest to traders remain the $2.06 support level, the 50-day EMA support at $2.18, the first resistance level at $2.34, and the high of $2.65 it achieved in May, prior to the Iran-Israel conflict.

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