Goldman Sachs: Expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in July, with the terminal interest rate possibly falling to 3.10%.

Jin10 data reported on July 8, Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lower the cash interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% at the July meeting, a prediction that has now been fully digested by the market. Goldman Sachs believes that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates consecutively again in August, with the final cut expected in November, bringing the terminal rate to 3.10%. Given the weak GDP data and the ongoing slowdown in private demand, the risk is inclined towards entering a deeper easing cycle. Regarding the policy statement, Goldman Sachs expects that the final part of the statement may not change much, still emphasizing the inflation target and that the policy remains 'somewhat restrictive.' The reference to a 'serious downturn scenario' may be removed, as there is no updated monetary policy forecast statement. It is expected that the tone of private demand will gradually moderate, but the labor market is still described as 'tight.'