July is a beautiful month for Bitcoin as the selling pressure is quickly absorbed.

Data from Glassnode shows that the price of Bitcoin fluctuating in the zone from 100,000 to 110,000 dollars is the result of take profit activity.

Specifically, the data indicates that medium and long-term holders (LTH) are leading this sell-off. Among them, coins aged 3–5 years have taken profit up to 849 million dollars, the group of coins held for 7–10 years has sold off with a total value of 485 million dollars, and the group of coins from 1–2 years has also taken profit of about 445 million dollars.

Thus, the selling pressure from long-term investors is putting significant pressure on the price increase of Bitcoin in the current period.

Realized profit by coin age | Source: GlassnodeAccording to the data, daily realized profit reached 2.46 billion dollars, with the 7-day average rising to 1.52 billion dollars, surpassing the year-to-date average of 1.14 billion dollars, but still lower than the peak of 4–5 billion dollars recorded in Q4/2024.

Although LTH is selling, CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei Dent stated that there is still a positive point as the data shows that this activity provides net benefits.

The Spent Output Age Bands index shows the time when coins with different holding periods are spent, while the Binary Coin Days Destroyed index simplifies the data by marking whether LTH moved coins on that day or not.

Dent explains that the continuous emergence of long-term coin transactions is a positive signal in the bullish cycle.

Bitcoin Spent Output Age Bands | Source: CryptoQuantDent indicates that despite selling pressure, BTC price remains stable, showing that the market is absorbing this selling due to steady demand.

You also note that there are more activities from coins held for 1 to 3 years, reflecting the take profit actions of those who purchased from the previous cycle.

"If so, this indicates a transfer of market control from long-term investors to newer investors," the analyst said, implying that the change is a signal of strength, not a weakness.

Historical Probability Supports Bitcoin Price Increase in July

As Bitcoin Magazine reported, BTC may follow a positive trend in July, extending the decade-long performance of the S&P 500 index. SPX just recorded the highest monthly close in June, and history shows that July is often the strongest month for Bitcoin.

Since 2013, BTC has averaged a profit of 7.56% in July, with 8 increases in 12 periods, including an increase of 24.03% in 2020. Q3 often sees strong profits from risky assets and the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 suggests that BTC could establish a new all-time high above 112,000 dollars as early as this month.

In fact, when Bitcoin reaches a new peak, this asset may experience strong volatility, according to CryptoCon's assessment. The technical analyst emphasizes that Bitcoin has undergone a sideways phase lasting 195 days since December 18, 2024, with only 36 days of significant price movement. The analysis shows a phase of "range expansion in cycle 4". This slow cycle aligns with historical patterns, where short-term price breakouts reflect a broader upward trend.

Expanded analysis and Bitcoin cycle range | Source: CryptoConSince 2023, each major breakout of Bitcoin has occurred within about 30 to 40 days, typically followed by a sideways consolidation phase. If history repeats itself, the next breakout could quickly push prices up to the zone of 140,000–150,000 dollars before entering another cooling phase.

Minh Anh