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Global Market Insights: Intersection of Encryption and AI, Intensifying Policy Divergence
Global Market Insights at the Intersection of Encryption and AI
Against the backdrop of the rapid development of encryption and AI, some important market trends are worth noting. This article will delve into the key trends in the global market, including geopolitical situations, macroeconomic policies, technological diplomacy, and the latest developments in the cryptocurrency market.
Token2049 Dubai Event: Industry Heat Rebounds
Recently, the Token2049 conference held in Dubai attracted many industry professionals. Compared to last year, the atmosphere of this year's event has noticeably improved, and participants generally believe that market sentiment is turning positive. Many project teams have regained confidence and are refocusing on long-term development. Although the intensive off-site activities and traffic congestion brought some inconveniences to the attendees, overall, the conference still successfully showcased the vitality of the industry.
It is worth mentioning that a local pistachio chocolate in Dubai has unexpectedly gained popularity, even causing a global "pistachio shortage". The price of this chocolate has risen from the original $7 to $10, and in Dubai, it even reached $20 per piece.
The Intensifying India-Pakistan Situation Draws International Attention
Last week, tensions between India and Pakistan escalated again, becoming the focus of international attention. This conflict can be traced back to the partition of British India in 1947, after which the two countries have gone to war multiple times. The current round of tensions originated from a terrorist attack that occurred in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22, which resulted in the deaths of several Hindu tourists.
India subsequently launched a military strike codenamed "Operation Sindhura," claiming that the target was terrorist bases in the Pakistan-administered Kashmir region. Pakistan condemned this as an "act of war" and declared that retaliatory strikes had been carried out. Clashes near the Line of Control resulted in the evacuation of a large number of civilians.
The international community has expressed concern over the escalation of the situation and urged both sides to exercise restraint. However, driven by populist sentiments, the conflict seems difficult to calm down in the short term. As an ally of Pakistan, China has also expressed serious concern about the developments.
The Divergence of Global Monetary Policies Intensifies
Recently, the monetary policies of major global economies have shown significant divergence. The People's Bank of China has lowered the reserve requirement ratio, injecting a large amount of liquidity into the market. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has maintained high interest rates despite facing negative GDP growth in the first quarter. In contrast, the UK has chosen to lower interest rates to 4.25%, demonstrating a different policy orientation.
In trade, the United States and the United Kingdom have reached a new agreement, the first formal agreement since the Trump administration initiated a global tariff offensive. Both sides have agreed to reduce trade barriers in areas such as automobiles, agriculture, and steel, laying the groundwork for more comprehensive trade negotiations in the future.
AI Chip Diplomacy and Strategic Shift
The U.S. government hinted at a potential adjustment to the previously established AI diffusion control framework, which carries significant strategic implications. The new policy leans towards using AI chip exports as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations rather than implementing comprehensive restrictions. This shift may benefit U.S. companies in expanding their market share while maintaining their technological edge.
It is worth noting that excessive restrictions may stimulate other countries to accelerate innovation. For example, Tencent has developed highly efficient AI models "Hunyuan Turbo S" and "Hunyuan T1" in response to chip restrictions. At the ICLR conference, representatives from China showcased their research results in low memory consumption, demonstrating that rapid progress can still be made under restrictive conditions.
New Taiwan Dollar Fluctuations Attract Attention
The New Taiwan Dollar has experienced significant fluctuations recently, appreciating more than 10% in just two trading days, marking the largest increase in over 40 years. This unusual movement is primarily driven by substantial foreign capital inflows into the Taiwanese stock market, particularly in the semiconductor sector. The Taiwanese authorities have chosen not to intervene in the exchange rate, suggesting that they allow the New Taiwan Dollar to appreciate.
However, the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar may have a negative impact on Taiwan's exports. Analysts have differing opinions on the future trend of the New Taiwan Dollar; some predict it will continue to appreciate, while others believe it is about to correct. This volatility reflects changes in global capital flows and the impact of the AI boom on related industries.
New Developments in China-US Trade Relations
The Chinese and American sides recently held trade talks in Geneva and issued a joint statement announcing adjustments to certain tariffs. The United States will cancel most of the additional tariffs, and China will also correspondingly cancel and suspend some countermeasures. Both sides agreed to establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations.
The negotiations this time mainly focused on tariff reductions, but there are still some sensitive issues that have not been resolved. The Ministry of Commerce stated that the ultimate goal is to completely correct the mistake of unilateral tariff increases and to maintain the healthy development of China-US economic and trade relations.
Strengthening Trends in Bitcoin Corporate Holdings
As the price of Bitcoin breaks through the $100,000 mark, the trend of companies holding Bitcoin continues to strengthen. Some well-known companies have recently increased their Bitcoin holdings:
Divergence in National Policies on Encryption Assets
South Korea is about to hold a presidential election, and the main candidates have all pledged to promote the legalization of Bitcoin ETFs, showing a rare bipartisan consensus. The Financial Services Commission has also expressed its willingness to discuss implementation plans, marking a significant shift in policy attitude.
At the same time, some states in the United States are gradually accepting Bitcoin: New Hampshire allows a portion of public funds to be invested in Bitcoin, while Arizona allows unclaimed digital assets to be used for staking or earning rewards.
However, some countries and regions remain cautious about using Bitcoin as a public financial reserve. Countries like the UK, Japan, Switzerland, and Russia have explicitly stated that the volatility of Bitcoin makes it unsuitable as a public financial reserve. This divergence in policy attitudes reflects the different views and risk assessments of emerging asset classes among countries.