US recession in 2025: the odds rise to 64% according to Polymarket

On Polymarket, the probabilities that the United States will enter a recession during 2025 are increasing worryingly. The alarm is being raised not only by financial analysts or economists, but also by participants in predictive markets. According to the updated data from Polymarket, one of the most followed decentralized betting platforms, the possibility that the American economy will enter a recession next year has risen to 64%.

Questi dati riflettono un cambiamento significativo nel sentimento degli investitori e degli utenti della piattaforma, che stanno rivedendo al rialzo le loro aspettative negative sulla economia a stelle e strisce.

The thermometer of predictive markets: what Polymarket says

Polymarket è una piattaforma di scommesse decentralizzata basata sulla tecnologia blockchain, che consente agli utenti di scommettere denaro reale su futuri esiti di eventi politici, economici e sociali. In questo caso, riguarda la probabilità che gli Stati Uniti sperimenteranno una recessione economica nel 2025.

According to the definition adopted for this event on the platform, a recession is considered to be two consecutive quarters in which the real GDP records negative growth. It is therefore not just a simple economic contraction or a temporary decline, but a structural slowdown of the economy.

At the moment, the Polymarket market evaluates the probability of a recession in 2025 at 64%, a figure that represents a significant increase compared to previous months. This data becomes even more relevant when considering that the platform aggregates the collective intelligence of thousands of users, many of whom are experts or deep connoisseurs of the markets.

Why is the fear of a US recession in 2025 growing on Polymarket?

The progressive increase in the probabilities of a recession in the United States is linked to several macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Among the main elements that fuel uncertainty are:

Restrictive monetary policies

In the last two years, the Federal Reserve has adopted an aggressive monetary policy to counter inflation, repeatedly increasing interest rates. This has had the effect of slowing economic growth, particularly in sectors more sensitive to the cost of money such as real estate and consumer spending;

Weakness of the labor market

Despite the official data still showing a certain resilience in employment, there are signs of cooling in the labor market, with a growing number of companies announcing staff reductions or hiring freezes. This could translate into a contraction of domestic demand in the coming months;

Geopolitical and commercial uncertainty

The war in Ukraine, the tensions between the United States and China, and the political instability in the Middle East are contributing to create a climate of global uncertainty. These factors can negatively affect trade exchanges and further slow down economic growth.

Cosa significa una recessione per l'economia degli Stati Uniti?

The entry into recession entails a series of significant consequences for the U.S. economy. Among the most immediate are:

Decrease in investments: companies tend to reduce spending on fixed capital and research.

Decrease in consumption: with fewer employed and greater uncertainty, families limit their expenses.

Increase in unemployment: the contraction of economic activity leads many companies to cut staff.

Difficulty for financial markets: uncertainty increases volatility and can lead to significant declines in the bull markets.

These effects, if combined, can generate a vicious cycle that is difficult to reverse without strongly expansive economic policies.

The role of expectations

It is interesting to note how expectations play a fundamental role in the economy. When a significant percentage of investors, businesses, and consumers anticipate a recession, they tend to adopt more cautious behaviors: companies delay hiring and investments, consumers reduce spending, investors shift towards safer assets.

In other words, the forecast itself can contribute to creating the conditions for the occurrence of the recession. In this sense, the 64% figure recorded by Polymarket is not only a passive indicator, but it can also have an active effect on economic sentiment.

Probability of a USA recession in 2025 at 64% on Polymarket: a signal not to ignore

Predictive markets, although not infallible, have demonstrated on several occasions their ability to anticipate economic and political events with a certain accuracy. The growing attention towards Polymarket and similar platforms stems precisely from their ability to reflect in real time the change in collective perceptions.

The fact that the probability of recession has risen to 64% should not be interpreted as a certainty, but as an alert signal. Economic policy authorities and investors should take this type of indicator into account to evaluate strategies and containment measures.

Waiting for the next moves of the Fed

A key element in the coming months will be the behavior of the Federal Reserve. If the institution led by Jerome Powell were to begin easing monetary policy during 2024, lowering interest rates, it could help to avoid or mitigate the effects of a possible recession.

Tuttavia, qualsiasi decisione sarà influenzata dalle dinamiche dell'inflazione, che rimane il principale nemico della stabilità economica. Se i prezzi continuano a salire, la Fed potrebbe trovarsi costretta a mantenere una posizione rigorosa, anche a costo di causare un rallentamento più marcato dell'economia.

Conclusion: uncertainty and caution

In a global context already fragile, the increase in the probability of recession in the United States represents an element of concern shared by multiple economic actors. The 64% figure released by Polymarket should not be taken lightly: it is the reflection of a growing distrust in the resilience of the American economy in the coming year.

Although there are still no certainties, the message coming from predictive markets is clear: prudence and preparation will be essential to face a potentially turbulent 2025 on the economic front.