Key points of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes: The wait-and-see period ends in summer, and a rate cut is possible in September.

On July 9, the key points of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes are as follows: · How likely is a rate cut in July: Both Waller and Bowman, appointed by Trump 1.0, indicated they would consider a rate cut at the July meeting, suggesting that the impact of tariffs on prices may be temporary. · The wait-and-see period ends in summer, with a possible rate cut in September: The meeting minutes may hint that "the interest rate trajectory will depend on the data released in June, July, and August," and the "wait-and-see" period may end by the end of summer. The minutes may indicate that the committee expects to obtain the necessary data for a rate cut decision before the end of summer. If conditions meet expectations, this will strengthen market expectations for a rate cut in September. · Lower threshold for rate cuts: The June meeting minutes may read more dovishly. At the June meeting, Powell leaned towards neutral language, but the minutes can better reflect what Powell did not explicitly state: the threshold for rate cuts is decreasing. · Clues of internal divisions: Among the 19 officials in June, 7 believed that a rate cut is not needed this year, 2 expect one rate cut, 8 expect two rate cuts, and 2 expect three rate cuts. Analysts will look for clues that explain this division. What supports the view of the 7 Federal Reserve officials who believe there will be no rate cuts at all in 2025? · Concerns about dual mandates: Previous Federal Reserve economic forecasts indicate that the pace of price increases will accelerate over the remaining time this year, but in 2026, even if rates are expected to decline, the pace of price increases will also decline again. There is also concern about whether there are serious worries regarding the strength of the labor market. (Jin10)