Analysis of the Competitive Landscape Between Arbitrum and Optimism

For a long time, Arbitrum's strategy of attracting users through airdrop expectations has been considered a clever tactic. However, from a broader ecological development perspective, this approach may miss the best strategic opportunities.

In the past, Arbitrum had the best opportunity to launch a token economy. At that time, Arbitrum's TVL ratio exceeded 55%, while a competitor only had about 5%. However, Arbitrum failed to seize this opportunity. Now, the competitor's TVL has reached 57% of Arbitrum's, showing rapid growth. Some projects like SNX and Perp have shifted their focus from Ethereum L1 to this competing platform, while some native projects like velodrome are gradually gaining user recognition.

Based on various data such as historical total trading volume and active users, competitors are narrowing the gap with Arbitrum. If Arbitrum can launch a token economic mechanism in the past six months, it could greatly enhance its ecological projects and TVL, effectively suppressing the rise of competitors.

Currently, there are some outstanding native projects on Arbitrum, such as the GMX and MAGIC ecosystems, as well as developing projects like GNS and RDNT. However, these advantages are not eternal. The off-chain execution multi-round fraud proof technology adopted by Arbitrum does have its uniqueness, and migrating Ethereum L1 projects to Arbitrum is relatively easy. However, with the implementation of EIP4844, these technical advantages may gradually weaken.

Competitors are also actively promoting technological innovation, such as the upcoming bedrock upgrade and modular L2 networks. A well-known exchange has joined their ranks, launching an Ethereum L2 network testnet based on their tech stack. In addition, this competitor is also researching zk-Rollup technology, which may lead to upgrades based on the existing ecosystem in the future.

It is worth noting that competitors have successfully transformed some users from temporary participants into long-term users within the ecosystem through a well-designed airdrop mechanism. This indicates that their team has strong capabilities in community operation and economic mechanism design.

Although Arbitrum is currently performing well, potential risks should not be overlooked. Historically, a certain NFT trading platform has dominated the market for a long time, but the innovative mechanisms of emerging competitors have had a significant impact on it. Arbitrum should learn from this lesson and provide more support and incentives for projects within its ecosystem to achieve mutual promotion and sustainable development.

The Layer 2 track is still in its early stages, and no absolute king has emerged yet. Arbitrum occupies a favorable position, and if it can seize this opportunity, it is likely to stand out among the many L2s. Even as Zk EVM technology gradually matures in the future, Arbitrum will also have the opportunity to migrate its ecosystem. While technical barriers are indeed important, the ecological network and resilience are even more crucial.

The future development of Arbitrum depends on the decisions made by its team. It is hoped that Arbitrum can seize this historic opportunity and take a leading position in the L2 space.

It is important to note that the above analysis is based solely on current market observations and does not represent absolute correctness. Investors should maintain independent judgment and implement proper risk management.