BTC rises 9.7%, facing the challenges brought by new policies

In January 2025, the price of Bitcoin rose again by 9.7%, closing at $102,411.26, and reached a historical high of $109,358.01 in the middle of the month. This rise was attributed to the gradual recovery of global liquidity and the drive of market optimism.

With the new government taking office, the cryptocurrency market is迎来了一系列利好政策. The new government has established a digital asset market task force aimed at formulating a comprehensive regulatory framework covering various aspects such as market structure, oversight, and consumer protection. In addition, several states are advancing the "Bitcoin Reserve Bill," planning to incorporate Bitcoin into state-level strategic reserves to hedge against inflation and promote fiscal stability.

However, the market also faces new challenges. The new government has announced tariff increases on multiple trading partners, which could trigger rising inflation and, in turn, affect the Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts. The market's pricing of this policy change seems to be insufficient, so the price of BTC may experience volatility in the short term.

From a technical perspective, the Bitcoin price has formed a box structure between $89,000 and $110,000. This range can be seen as the market's pricing range for the new policy. At the same time, the second upward trend line is about to intersect with the upper edge of the box, which will force the market to make a directional choice in the short term.

In terms of capital inflow, January continued to maintain a strong momentum, with a total inflow of 16.406 billion USD. This reflects the trend of increased investor risk appetite following the global shift into a rate-cutting cycle, as well as the growing adoption rate of Bitcoin. However, if capital inflows slow down, the price of Bitcoin may face short-term adjustments.

The selling behavior of long-term holders continues, but the scale is decreasing month by month. Currently, the number of Bitcoins distributed in the range of $89,000 to $110,000 has reached 4,138,554.23, accounting for 24.22% of the total issuance. This portion of chips has formed a new support area, mainly from purchases by institutional investors.

Overall, with the introduction and implementation of cryptocurrency-friendly policies, Bitcoin is moving from the fringe market to the mainstream. New investors are entering the market at higher prices, driving a revaluation of Bitcoin in new scenarios. However, the new government's economic policies may cause short-term fluctuations in the market, and investors need to closely monitor the impact of policy implementation on interest rate expectations and capital supply.