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📅 July 3, 7:00 – July 9,
The probability of predicting "Musk will create a new political party by the end of this year" on Polymarket is 42%.
On July 4, according to data from the official website, the probability of predicting "Musk creating a new political party by the end of this year" on Polymarket is reported at 42%; the probability on Kalshi for "Musk creating a new political party this year" is currently at 35%. Musk stated on July 1 that if the "Beautiful Law" passes, a new political party in the United States will be established the next day. Trump's "Beautiful Law" passed in the House of Representatives this morning and will be signed at 5 AM on Saturday. In addition, Musk initiated a vote on social media on June 6: "Is it time to create a new political party in the United States that truly represents the middle 80%?" The voting results showed that 5,630,775 users participated, with 80.4% of users choosing to support.